000 AXNT20 KNHC 031027 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0955 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN IS CENTERED NEAR 28.7N 79.2W AT 03/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 75 NM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MOVING N AT 05 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 78W-81W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N29W TO 19N31W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WITH A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N30W. SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST...NO CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N94W TO 21N95W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A WEAK AREA OF GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGHING AND RELATIVE VORTICITY ALONG 95W MOVING ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE MEXICO COAST FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 95W-97W. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO 17N21W TO 11N29W TO 08N37W TO 08N48W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N48W TO 06N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 29W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS NEAR 33N101W AND IS PROVIDING THE GULF WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IT REMAINS FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE WITH MOISTURE NOTED GENERALLY S OF 25N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED S OF 21N ALONG 95W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF 24N. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 27N84W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH E OF 84W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOOKING AHEAD...RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING W OF 90W IN THE RANGE OF 10-20 KT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 20N84W THAT IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING N OF 19N BETWEEN 78W-85W. FARTHER SOUTH...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 13N75W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 09N IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 79W-85W...WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD N OF 16N E OF 85W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES E OF 75W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER OCCURRING OVER THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N E OF 66W...AND ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 12N E OF 68W. OTHERWISE...THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER CONTINUES TO SPREAD WESTWARD REACHING 76W. HISPANIOLA... SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INITIAL SURGE OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER HAS ARRIVED AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HAZY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN IS CENTERED OFF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 78W-81W. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N56W AND A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 35N28W. ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGING... A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT. THE AIR LAYER HAS PROGRESSED TO 76W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS WITH A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN