000 AXNT20 KNHC 022358 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI AUG 02 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF DORIAN...IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 22N25W TO AN EMBEDDED 1009 MB LOW NEAR 16N26W TO 11N26W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE MOVE W TO 17N30W IN 24 HOURS WITH THE WAVE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF VERY DRY AND DUSTY SAHARAN AIR SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS TO INCLUDE THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N92W TO S MEXICO NEAR 16N93W MOVING W AT 12 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 88W-91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 93W-96W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 16N26W 10N30W 07N43W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N43W TO 08N50W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 06N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 15W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 25W- 29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 29W- 41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES FROM S GEORGIA AT 33N82W TO S MISSISSIPPI AT 32N91W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE FRONT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW GULF PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER S MEXICO. THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE THE E COAST OF FLORIDA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 32N99W PRODUCING NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE. EXPECT THE FLORIDA LOW TO MOVE NNE TO 31N78W. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA...AND WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA ... JAMAICA... AND THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF HISPANIOLA. FURTHER S... A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 81W-84W. MORE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE...SUBSIDENCE AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND AS TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES NW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN IS OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N55W. ANOTHER 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 36N33W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 10N-25N E OF 70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 72W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA