000 AXNT20 KNHC 020019 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU AUG 01 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...LOCATED BETWEEN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...BRINGING CLOUDINESS... SHOWERS...AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 23N21W TO AN EMBEDDED 1009 MB LOW NEAR 18N22W TO 11N22W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE MOVE SW TO 16N26W IN 24 HOURS WITH THE WAVE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF VERY DRY AND DUSTY SAHARAN AIR SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS TO INCLUDE THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N87W TO GUATEMALA NEAR 15N89W MOVING W AT 12 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS...ESPECIALLY OVER LAND. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 21N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 18N22W 10N30W 07N45W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 06N57W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 10W-26W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 39W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SE LOUISIANA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WATER AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING W AT 12 KTS. A 1017 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N94W PROVIDING 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. ELSEWHERE AIRMASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMD ARE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF PRODUCING NE TO E UPPER LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH TO MOVE E OUT OF THE AREA. EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS TO ADVECT OVER FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA WITH CONVECTION MOVING W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA ... JAMAICA...AND THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF HISPANIOLA. FURTHER S SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N- 12N BETWEEN 73W-84W. ELSEWHERE...SUBSIDENCE AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS HINDERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MORE CONVECTION IS LIKELY FROM A SURFACE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER THE MONA PASSAGE THAT IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS. SEE ABOVE. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N38W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 10N-25N E OF 60W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 72W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS