000 AXNT20 KNHC 011033 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU AUG 01 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 23N85W TO 15N85W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE LESS DEFINED WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES RATHER THAN THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 22N17W AND CONTINUES THROUGH A WEAK 1011 MB LOW NEAR 17N21W THEN ALONG 10N30W TO 7N42W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N51W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N E OF 19W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA...FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 17W-20W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 10N18W TO 8N22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 36W-59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS EXTENDS SE ACROSS THE GULF TO W CUBA GIVING THE GULF N TO E FLOW ALOFT. REMNANT SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N E OF 89W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA AND ALABAMA. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA TO TEXAS AND MEXICO WITH A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N92W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CLIPS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 82W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 16N W OF 73W. THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS DIPS S OVER THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 77W-85W. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/ PUERTO RICO LEAVING HISPANIOLA IN A CULL AREA BETWEEN THE UPPER LOWS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E 70W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N E OF 77W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 10N FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N E OF 80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 77W-80W AND S OF 13N W OF 80W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON. HISPANIOLA... SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING. HISPANIOLA IS IN A CULL AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A SECOND CENTERED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/PUERTO RICO. THIS WEAK SECOND UPPER LOW WILL BE ABSORBED BY A BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND WILL SHIFT W TO OVER HISPANIOLA EARLY THE WEEKEND INCREASING PRECIPITATION OVER THE ISLAND. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS S OF THE ABOVE SHORTWAVE FROM NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO BEYOND 32N73W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NW OF LINE FROM ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N76W. AN UPPER LOW IS TO THE S CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W AND EXTENDS S ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N75W TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N77W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 74W-78W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 73W-77W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N62W ALONG 29N65W TO 27N67W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SECOND LARGER UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N54W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 52W-57W. A VERY BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC DIPS S TO 27N E OF 35W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N22W TO 30N31W THEN NW TO BEYOND 32N37W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS IS A DRY STABLE AREA...THUS NO ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE...WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE COLD FRONT AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB NW OF THE AZORES AND A WEAKER 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 31N44W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S TO NEAR 26N EARLY MON AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES N OF THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW