000 AXNT20 KNHC 291044 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUL 29 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...EXTENDS FROM 25N63W TO 16N64W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE HAS A A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THE VICINITY OF 21N64W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 62W-67W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N33W TO 11N32W TO 08N31W MOVING W AT 5 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED AROUND A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE NOTED AS A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 11N32W. CONVECTION REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH MOSTLY SCATTERRED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 11N32W TO 07N43W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N43W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 06N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WELL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 12W- 17W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 27W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 31N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 85W- 91W. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W TEXAS NEAR 31N104W PRODUCING NE FLOW OVER THE NW GULF. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N89W. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING CONVECTION N OF 20N AND SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. ELSEWHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO PANAMA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 09N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 74W-78W...AND FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 81W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 18N84W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AT 15 KT...AND FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF BELIZE. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 25N69W THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT SW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE ISLAND. IN ADDITION...THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN ARE FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH OF THE ISLAND TODAY AND TUESDAY... WITH SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD PROVIDING ANOTHER MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N63W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NUMEROUS SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC AT 30N32W...21N43W... 24N50W...25N69W...AND 33N67W. THE LATTER TWO LOWS ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...CONTINUED CONVECTION N OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF THE BAHAMAS...AND OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA