000 AXNT20 KNHC 290551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUL 29 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...EXTENDS FROM 24N61W TO 15N64W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE CORRESPONDS WITH A MID- LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THE VICINITY OF 21N62W. WHILE NO SURFACE CIRCULATION IS APPARENT AT THIS TIME...THE DYNAMICS ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 60W-67W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N33W TO 11N31W TO 08N30W MOVING W AT 5 KT. THE WAVE AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT ARE WRAPPED UP IN A MONSOONAL GYRE FOCUSED AROUND A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE NOTED AS A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N31W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. CONVECTION REMAINS VERY LIMITED WITH MOSTLY SCATTERRED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OFTHE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 11N31W TO 09N34W TO 08N40W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N40W TO 08N50W TO 04N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WELL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 11W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 27W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N85W. A 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 31N89W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 85W-88W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W TEXAS NEAR 31N104W PRODUCING NE FLOW OVER THE NW GULF. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N89W. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING CONVECTION N OF 20N AND SHOWERS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. EVENING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN. ELSEWHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO PANAMA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 09N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 74W-78W...AND FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 81W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 18N84W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AT 15 KT...AND FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF BELIZE. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 25N69W THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT SW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AN PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE ISLAND. IN ADDITION...THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN ARE FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH OF THE ISLAND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD PROVIDING ANOTHER MECHANISM TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N61W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NUMEROUS SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC AT 30N32W...21N43W...24N50W...25N69W...AND 33N67W. THE LATTER TWO LOWS ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...CONTINUED CONVECTION N OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF THE BAHAMAS...AND OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA