000 AXNT20 KNHC 281041 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 17N35W TO 9N25W MOVING W-SW NEAR 20 KT. WAVE APPEARS TO BE ROTATING W-SW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 10N28W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN AND EXTENDS FROM 22N57W TO 15N58W MOVING W 15- 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 22N56W TO 18N61W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N28W TO 5N39W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N48W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 6N50W TO 9N58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE GULF TO 85W WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER S MEXICO COVERING THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS EXTENDS TO OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 88W SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT REMAINS INLAND OVER THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTH CAROLINA N OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TEXAS. THE FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N E OF 94W TO INLAND FROM FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF MEXICO WITH A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 24N89W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN S OF 20N W OF 78W ANCHORED OVER NICARAGUA. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS N OF THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE E YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA TO 15N75W. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 69W-77W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 9N/10N FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N E OF 78W AND S OF 13N W OF 78W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN WILL MOVE W ACROSS W TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN BY TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N TO ALONG THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER HISPANIOLA WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NW ON TUE. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND MON AND TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO 30N75W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE AREA FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 76W- 81W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N69W COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN 64W-74W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE AREA FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 66W- 76W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-78W WITH A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE AZORES. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 24N30W SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N23W TO 27N32W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN WILL MOVE W ACROSS S PORTION OF THE W ATLC TONIGHT THROUGH WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW