000 AXNT20 KNHC 262344 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN AT 26/2100 UTC IS NEAR 17.8N 45.8W. DORIAN IS MOVING WEST AT 18 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N- 22N BETWEEN 42W-47W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF CAMPECHE AT 21N92W TO S OF GUATEMALA AT 12N92W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS RELATIVELY DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W AND EXTENDS TO 09N24W TO 07N31W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N31W TO 07N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 04N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 13W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 26W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 45W- 52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N90W. 5- 15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO DRAPE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES WITH CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND THE LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A MONSOON TROUGH EXENDS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 7N- 11N BETWEEN 76W-86W. ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE MONA CHANNEL ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO E CUBA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 67W-78W DUE TO SURFACE CONFLUENCE. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE W TIP OF CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 83W-85W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND PUERTO RICO TO INCLUDE THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED WELL N OF PUERTO RICO AT 27N65W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA... THE CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N74W. ANOTHER 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 28N79W. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS. SCATTERED SHOWWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SYSTEM. A STRONG 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N47W AFFECTING THE STREERING FLOW OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N65W PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 24N BETWEEN 60N- 67N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NW ATLANTIC N OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ALSO EXPECT THE CONVECTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO PERSIST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA