000 AXNT20 KNHC 250005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUL 24 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN AT 24/0000 UTC IS NEAR 14.6N 31.4W. THE CENTER OF DORIAN IS ABOUT 810 KM TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DORIAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 17 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 29W AND 32W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 29W AND 30W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 15N32W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH ALSO. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER AREAS OF SENEGAL AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N17W...TO 12N18W AND 13N24W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS DISRUPTED BY THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND TROPICAL STORM DORIAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 12N33W TO 8N40W AND 6N49W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N49W INTO FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 15W AND 24W...ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 24W AND 40W...AND FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. IT REACHES ROUGHLY 25N. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO- EASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 75W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS INLAND...IN MEXICO...FROM 23N99W TO 19N104W. A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N89W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS ARE REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATIONS... IN KINGSVILLE AND IN CORPUS CHRISTI...AND IN THE HOUSTON TEXAS METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED IN PALACIOS TEXAS. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN THE NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA METROPOLITAN AREA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED IN MOBILE ALABAMA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER FLORIDA FROM TALLAHASSEE WESTWARD...AND SIMILAR CLOUD CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN CCURRING IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATION KGBK. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 80W...AND FROM HONDURAS TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND 93W IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 11N79W 18N70W. SOME OF THIS WIND FLOW MERGES WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 25N64W-TO-17N74W TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N78W...CUTTING ACROSS CUBA ALONG 80W...TO 20N81W. THIS TROUGH WAS THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF ENERGY THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 81W/82W TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS AT THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH ALSO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA... THROUGH PANAMA...BEYOND 85W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH ALSO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. HISPANIOLA... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 25N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 17N74W OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG HAS BEEN IN HAITI ALONG 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN CUBA BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL SPAN THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH UNTIL THE END OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION WILL SPAN THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NO TROPICAL WAVE IS APPARENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N60W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 25N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 17N74W OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 48W AND 74W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT REACHES COLD WATER IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD ABOUT 15 MPH. A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 20N46W 11N48W. IT IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 37N38W TO 21N34W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 51W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N63W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC...THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC...AND THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM DORIAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT