000 AXNT20 KNHC 240605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0525 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N24W TO 07N25W AND MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS WHICH IS SUPPORTING A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW CENTER AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 06N-14N BETWEEN 23W-32W. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE IN SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE STARTED LATER THIS MORNING. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AS OF 0300 UTC...A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CUBA WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 24N75W TO 09N78W AND MOVING NEAR 5 KT. FOR THE MOST PART THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT AND THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THE TIME. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N22W...THE LOW SYSTEM...11N31W TO 08N36W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N36W TO 05N43W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ALREADY DISCUSSED ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXES BETWEEN 32W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 26N86W THAT IS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 5-20 KT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODERATE MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 85W AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL SCENARIO IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS S OF 20N OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. OVER THE REMAINDER GULF...VERY DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. RAINSHOWERS OVER THE NE AND SW GULF ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THE REST OF THE BASIN WILL ENJOY FAIR WEATHER AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. FOR THE MOST PART THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT AND THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THE TIME. A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR THE MOST PART IS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 79W. STRONG TRADEWINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE BANKING THIS MOISTURE TOWARD NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF ITS COASTLINES. OVER THE REMAINDER BASIN...DRY AIR IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...TRADEWINDS UP TO 30 KT PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHTER WINDS UP TO 15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE WEST COAST OF CUBA VERY EARLY ON THURSDAY AND THEN OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT LIKELY OR WILL BE LIMITED AS THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BE EMBEDDED IN A VERY DRY AIR ENVIRONMENT. HISPANIOLA... VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS IS MAINTAINING A CONVECTIVE FREE ENVIRONMENT THIS MORNING. EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS ENHANCED BY SURFACE DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MODERATE MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EXTENDS TO THE W ATLC. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 26N-30N W OF 75W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 28 N55W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 50W-63W. A 1019 MB LOW IS NEAR 30N35W WITH NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THE TIME. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27 N63W AND THE AZORES HIGH. BESIDES THE AREAS FORMERLY DISCUSSED...FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER ATLC SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR