000 AXNT20 KNHC 240004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. THE FEATURE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N39W. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE... ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 25W AND 27W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BEFORE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND OCEAN TEMPERATURES BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE BY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N71W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 17N76W...TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N63W. ONE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE CENTER BEYOND 32N65W. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 25N66W 22N72W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN WESTERN JAMAICA...IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND IN CUBA TO THE WEST OF 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM HISPANIOLA TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 23N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 48W AND 70W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SENEGAL NEAR 16N17W TO 11N30W 10N33W 7N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N38W TO 4N47W AND THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 24W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 11N TO THE EAST OF 23W...AND WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N37W 7N47W 8N58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY REMAINING PRECIPITATION COVER FLORIDA FROM 28N TO 30N. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE FLORIDA/ GEORGIA BORDER NORTHWARD BETWEEN 83W AND 88W ALONG THE BORDER OF ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N100W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N94W AND 25N92W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN THE MEXICO COAST AND 100W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND EASTERN GUATEMALA...AND TO HONDURAS ALONG 87W...IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW...IN BETWEEN THE CENTRAL AMERICA UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE 18N100W MEXICO CYCLONIC CENTER. A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N87W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS ARE REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATIONS...IN KINGSVILLE AND IN CORPUS CHRISTI...IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...IN TEXAS...AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS WITH NEARBY RAINSHOWERS COVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF ALABAMA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER FLORIDA FROM TALLAHASSEE WESTWARD...AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA DURING THE LAST FOUR HOURS OR SO. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA ALONG 79W...THROUGH NICARAGUA TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...TURNING ANTICYCLONICALLY...AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AS IT ENTERS AND CROSSES THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 73W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N71W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 17N76W...TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N63W. ONE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE CENTER BEYOND 32N65W. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 25N66W 22N72W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN WESTERN JAMAICA...IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND IN CUBA TO THE WEST OF 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM HISPANIOLA TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 23N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 48W AND 70W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N BETWEEN 76W IN COLOMBIA...TO 80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND WESTERN PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED STRONG IN COLOMBIA TO THE NORTH OF 6N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM PANAMA NEAR 8N TO THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W. HISPANIOLA... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N71W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 17N76W...TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N63W. ONE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE CENTER BEYOND 32N65W. A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 25N66W 22N72W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN WESTERN JAMAICA...IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND IN CUBA TO THE WEST OF 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM HISPANIOLA TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 23N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 48W AND 70W. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO HISPANIOLA...WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. NO TROPICAL WAVE IS APPARENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N54W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER TO 21N47W AND 18N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 23N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 48W AND 70W. A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N62W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W. THE 36-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 34W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N...WITH A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 15N34W. EXPECT 20 KNOT TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 15N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 37W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT