000 AXNT20 KNHC 222354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N21W 14N22W 9N23W... MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 21W AND 22W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 21W AND 26W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... BEFORE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N64W TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO TO 15N67W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WAS FROM THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO NORTHWARD TO 21N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W AT 22/1645 UTC. SCATTERED STRONG NOW IS FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND REMAINING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM PUERTO RICO TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W...FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W...AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GAMBIA/SENEGAL FROM 13N TO 14N ALONG 16W/17W...TO 13N20W 9N30W AND 7N41W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N41W TO 6N50W AND 6N55W IN COASTAL SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM GUINEA TO GUINEA-BISSAU TO THE WEST OF 14W...INTO SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL TO THE SOUTH OF GAMBIA...IN SENEGAL WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N BETWEEN 16W AND 17W...WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W...AND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 21W AND 22W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 21W AND 26W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 38W...FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 44W AND 48W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 53W AND 59W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN FLORIDA FROM 27N TO 29N...AND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N NORTHWARD INLAND...BETWEEN 84W AND 91W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 21N95W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W IN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 28N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG 27N/28N...INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W...ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. BROWNSVILLE IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED FROM ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON TO GALVESTON AND BEAUMONT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST...INCLUDING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN PATTERSON AND BOOTHVILLE IN LOUISIANA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE FROM THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA TO SLIDELL...EXTENDING TO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER FLORIDA FROM TALLAHASSEE WESTWARD. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AT THE ST. PETERSBURG/CLEARWATER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND IN SARASOTA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATION KEMK. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES FROM 17N66W...TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...TO 25N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE 22N64W-15N67W TROPICAL WAVE. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N64W TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO TO 15N67W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WAS FROM THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO NORTHWARD TO 21N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W AT 22/1645 UTC. SCATTERED STRONG NOW IS FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND REMAINING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM PUERTO RICO TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W...FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W...AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO PANAMA NEAR 9N78W...ALONG 9N INTO AND BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA NEAR 9N83W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 80W AND CENTRAL AMERICA AT 22/1515 UTC. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED ONSHORE...NOW COVERING NICARAGUA FROM ITS BORDER WITH COSTA RICA...INTO EASTERN HONDURAS. RAINSHOWERS STILL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM HONDURAS TO PANAMA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 82W. HISPANIOLA... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N64W TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO TO 15N67W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WAS FROM THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO NORTHWARD TO 21N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W AT 22/1645 UTC. SCATTERED STRONG NOW IS FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND REMAINING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM PUERTO RICO TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W...FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W...AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA STARTS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY MOVES WESTWARD...AND HISPANIOLA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE FOR THE TIME. THE 250 MB FORECAST SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY BECOMES NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST...UNTIL JUST BEFORE THE END OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. A TROUGH STARTS TO COVER THE AREA RIGHT AT THE END OF 48 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N48W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER TO 23N48W AND 19N48W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 42W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 30N65W 25N69W AND 23N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE 33N64W 23N70W TROUGH...AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH...CONTINUES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW ONCE IT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N31W...TO 28N35W AND 28N40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 29W AND 43W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N23W 24N32W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N36W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N26W TO 35N34W...TO A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N45W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N60W...TO 28N75W...ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG 27N/28N...INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W...ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT