000 AXNT20 KNHC 202343 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N48W TO 9N51W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGH AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE N OF 15N. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N83W TO 10N84W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 14N W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM 21N95W ACROSS S MEXICO INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 18N96W MOVING W- NW 20-25 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...ALL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS INLAND OVER MEXICO AND NOT IN THE GULF WATERS. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS MEXICO AND IS LEAVING THE GULF BASIN. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 14N21W 6N27W TO 5N33W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N40W 6N47W 8N53W TO 8N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 15W-23W... FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 24W-37W...AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 54W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER N LOUISIANA EXTENDING S INTO THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N TO OVER THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 86W-96W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E GULF ANCHORED NEAR 27N84W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W ATLC TO OVER FLORIDA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER FLORIDA AND WITHIN 45/60 NM ALONG THE W COAST BETWEEN CEDAR KEY AND KEY WEST. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN BETWEEN 87W-92W. OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON THEN WILL SHIFT FROM SW FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS TUE THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 75W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA TO 17N LEAVING AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W ACROSS PANAMA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N W OF 79W. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA LEAVING NO SURFACE FEATURES TO GENERATE ACTIVITY. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT INTO SUN. THE TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN LATE SUN NIGHT PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT AND TUE THEN WEAKEN OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU WITH GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA INTO SUN. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER CENTRAL HAITI THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER W HISPANIOLA WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK. THE W ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA MON AND TUE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 28N71W COVERING THE AREA W OF 62W TO OVER FLORIDA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 22N W OF 75W AND FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 66W-70W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC AND EXTENDS W OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1024 HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 28N67W AND A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N37W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC IS SUPPORTING A WEAK LOW AND COLD FRONT THAT BORDERS THE N PERIPHERY OF THE E/CENTRAL ATLC. THE NOAA GOES-R SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING THE E ATLC WITHIN 425 NM OF LINE FROM 13N43W ALONG 23N24W TO BEYOND 32N16W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER ALONG 28N THROUGH THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW