000 AXNT20 KNHC 201800 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 20N46W TO 16N49W TO 9N49W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE AXIS LIES WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE WAVE IS IS LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF DRY AIR AND DUST THAT EXTENDS E TO WEST AFRICA FROM 2N-28N. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 19N81W TO 10N81W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE AXIS LIES WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO FROM 22N92W TO 14N92W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MODERATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 19N16W TO 10N23W TO 06N31W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N31W TO 08N45W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 08N51W EXTENDS TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 07N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 20W-23W...FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 26W-33W...AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 57W-63W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION W OF THE AXIS. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO A 1024 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N65W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE LOUISIANA AT 32N93W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THIS CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 86W-95W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N72W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THIS CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER W CUBA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO SHIFT WNW WITH SOME CLEARING OVER W CUBA...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO PANAMA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER W CUBA FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 80W- 84W...WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 80W-85W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF N VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA S OF 13N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NORTHERLY FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL COL AREA IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF HONDURAS TO HAVE CONTINUE CONVECTION. HISPANIOLA... RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS OVER HISPANIOLA BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT LIMITING ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N65W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N33W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS WELL E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES PRODUCING SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N72W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 76W-79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 26N W OF 74W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA