000 AXNT20 KNHC 191135 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N38W 16N41W 11N41W... MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 5N TO 14N BETWEEN 36W AND 43W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N72W 20N74W 17N75W... MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WAVE HAS PASSED OVER HISPANIOLA AND IT IS NOW IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IS IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TO THE WEST OF 70W. MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS MIXED WITH MONSOON TROUGH PRECIPITATION. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N83W 12N80W 10N76W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N20W AND 9N24W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 9N24W TO 9N29W 10N35W AND 8N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 7N12W AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 30N90W IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS CENTER WAS ON TOP OF TAMPA FLORIDA A FEW DAYS AGO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N89W 25N93W 21N95W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 85W AND 86W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 89W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 90W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 94W AND 95W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 90W. BROWNSVILLE IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING. THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KINGSVILLE IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND A VISIBILITY OF 1.25 MILES WITH FOG. HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT IS REPORTING A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS IS REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN PENSACOLA FLORIDA. LIGHT DRIZZLE IS OBSERVED IN PANAMA CITY. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N69W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 14N69W CENTER...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 21N69W. THIS INVERTED TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS ADJACENT TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...WESTWARD FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 24 HOURS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 72W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER THAT IS NEAR 8N77W...THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA...TO SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND TO THE WEST OF GUATEMALA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N67W 19N70W 17N71W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WAVE CUTS ACROSS PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WAS COVERING THE ISLAND AT 18/2315 UTC. SOME OF THAT PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED...MOSTLY IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NUMEROUS STRONG REMAINS IN SOUTHWESTERN HAITI FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W. ONE CELL OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 71W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA...INTO PANAMA...AND BEYOND EXTREME SOUTHERN...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N83W 12N80W 10N76W. HISPANIOLA... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N72W 20N74W 17N75W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WAVE HAS PASSED OVER HISPANIOLA AND IT IS NOW IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IS IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TO THE WEST OF 70W. MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE 500 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. EASTERLY WIND WILL COVER THE AREA FOR DAY TWO OF THE PERIOD. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. HISPANIOLA EITHER WILL BE IN A COL OR AT THE EDGE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...OR AT THE EDGE OF A TROUGH FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N73W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS FLORIDA. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE 31N73W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 65W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 29N76W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 70W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N18W TO 32N30W...TO 32N40W 30N47W AND 28N61W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N24W TO 28N37W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N57W...TO 29N80W. 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