000 AXNT20 KNHC 190600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N35W 16N37W 10N38W 10N33W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN 29W AND 40W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N67W 19N70W 17N71W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WAVE CUTS ACROSS PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WAS COVERING THE ISLAND AT 18/2315 UTC. SOME OF THAT PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED...MOSTLY IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NUMEROUS STRONG REMAINS IN SOUTHWESTERN HAITI FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W. ONE CELL OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 71W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS MIXED WITH MONSOON TROUGH PRECIPITATION. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N73W 9N76W 10N79W 11N82W 12N83W 12N84W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W TO 12N20W 10N25W 10N28W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 10N28W TO 11N36W 10N41W...THROUGH FRENCH GUIANA...TO 3N55W IN SOUTHEASTERN SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 42W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 7N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 18W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 30N90W IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS CENTER WAS ON TOP OF TAMPA FLORIDA A FEW DAYS AGO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N84W 27N87W 24N89W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST...FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO 20N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO THE EAST OF 90W...AND FROM 22N TO 24N TO THE WEST OF 90W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE. HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT IS REPORTING A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. A THUNDERSTORM IS NEAR THE AIRPORT IN LAFOURCHE LOUISIANA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN THE NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA METROPOLITAN AREA. THE VISIBILITY IS 1/4 OF A MILE WITH FOG IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND LIGHT RAIN ARE OBSERVED IN PENSACOLA FLORIDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN VALPARAISO FLORIDA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS BROOKSVILLE TALLAHASSEE. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA FROM TAMPA TO SARASOTA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATIONS KMZG...OFF THE TEXAS COAST...AND KDLP OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N67W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 14N67W CENTER...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 20N68W. THIS INVERTED TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS ADJACENT TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...WESTWARD FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 24 HOURS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER THAT IS NEAR 8N77W...THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA...TO SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND TO THE WEST OF GUATEMALA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N67W 19N70W 17N71W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WAVE CUTS ACROSS PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WAS COVERING THE ISLAND AT 18/2315 UTC. SOME OF THAT PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED...MOSTLY IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NUMEROUS STRONG REMAINS IN SOUTHWESTERN HAITI FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W. ONE CELL OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 71W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N76W IN COLOMBIA...TO 11N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND 10N84W IN COSTA RICA... INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N73W 9N76W 10N79W 11N82W 12N83W 12N84W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W AND FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W. THE 48-HOUR FORECAST INDICATES EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. HISPANIOLA... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 71W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS RACING WESTWARD...MOVING COMPARATIVELY FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE WAVE SHOULD BE AFFECTING HISPANIOLA TODAY. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE 500 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. EASTERLY WIND WILL COVER THE AREA FOR DAY TWO OF THE PERIOD. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. HISPANIOLA EITHER WILL BE IN A COL OR AT THE EDGE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...OR AT THE EDGE OF A TROUGH FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N73W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS FLORIDA. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE 31N73W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 65W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 35N20W TO 31N32W...TO 28N47W AND 28N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 31N TO 32N BETWEEN 44W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 42W AND 64W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N24W TO A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N38W...TO A SECOND 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N56W...TO 30N77W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N55W TO 19N39W. EXPECT ALSO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT