000 AXNT20 KNHC 160605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W... MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE POSITION AGREES WITH LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 700 MB GFS TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ITCZ FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N57W 12N58W 10N50W MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N55W 14N58W 18N59W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W TO 10N20W AND 7N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N25W TO 7N34W 9N41W 11N47W AND 9N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 4N TO 11N TO THE EAST OF 60W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 86W...AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 55W AND FLORIDA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE COVERS THE AREA. MULTIPLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS ARE PRESENT IN THE AREA. ONE IS NEAR 27N68W. A SECOND ONE IS NEAR 27N79W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N64W 23N64W 21N63W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH MOVED INLAND ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W...FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W...AND FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER DEVELOPED AND IT IS NEAR 22N93W IN THE SOUTH- WESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND 100W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N89W 27N88W 24N86W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG BETWEEN 87W AND 96W. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN COVER THE AREA FROM ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON TO THE HOUSTON METRO- POLITAN AREA AND TO GALVESTON. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NEW ORLEANS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FAIR SKIES/ CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATIONS KEMK...KMDJ...KDLP...AND KIPN. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 20N63W 16N70W 12N78W. SOME OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING THROUGH COLOMBIA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TURNS SOUTHWESTWARD. SOME OF IT BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND BEYOND NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW... THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE AREA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N57W 12N58W 10N50W MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N55W 14N58W 18N59W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 6N76W...TO 8N81W IN SOUTHERN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COASTAL COLOMBIA FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 75W AND 76W...AND IN THE WATER TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 8N BETWEEN 79W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF PANAMA FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 78W AND 79W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT EAST WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. HISPANIOLA... CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA... FROM EARLIER AND ALREADY-DISSIPATED PRECIPITATION. THE 17N57W 12N58W 10N50W TROPICAL WAVE MAY REACH HISPANIOLA BY WEDNESDAY. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES IT AT THE MOMENT. THE GFS FORECASTS FOR 500 MB AND 700 MB SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH COVERING THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS A TROUGH COVERING THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 27N46W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 31N38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N32W...TO 28N40W 28N54W AND 29N60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT