000 AXNT20 KNHC 151130 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUL 15 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WAVE WAS ALONG 28W/29W SIX HOURS AGO. THE WAVE WAS REPOSITIONED IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 700 MB GFS TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ITCZ FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N52W 10N50W MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 52W AND 54W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WAVE MAY REACH THE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY ON TUESDAY. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 8N19W AND 9N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N23W TO 11N36W 10N41N 8N47W AND 6N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N5W 4N11W 6N19W 7N21W 7N24W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 5N TO 15N BETWEEN 29W AND 45W...TO THE SOUTH OF 9N BETWEEN 49W AND 57W. ...DISCUSSION... A 26N56W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... FLORIDA...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FLORIDA... AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 58W AND FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 30N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BETWEEN 52W AND FLORIDA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 56W AND 65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 76W/77W FROM 24N TO 31N. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD STEADILY DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. A SURFACE TROUGH APPEARED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS LATE AS 14/1945 UTC...ALONG 57W/58W FROM 19N TO 22N. IT IS NOW ALONG 61W FROM 17N TO 23N...APPROACHING THE AREA THAT IS COVERED BY THE 26N65W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING THROUGH OKLAHOMA. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW SPINS OFF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE OKLAHOMA CYCLONIC CENTER...ACROSS TEXAS...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE 30N91W 19N96W TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 28N85W 25N84W...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 16N87W AT THE COAST OF HONDURAS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF 87W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 20N97W. A THIN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N91W 24N91W...CURVING TO 19N96W IN THE SOUTHWEST-ERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N TO 20N IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 88W AND 91W NEAR GUATEMALA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE MOBILE ALABAMA DOWNTOWN GENERAL AIRPORT. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF PERRY...AND FROM BROOKSVILLE TO TAMPA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN PUNTA GORDA... AT MARATHON KEY...AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATION KMZG...AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATION KEIR. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 26N65W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CENTER...INCLUDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. THE 28N85W TO 16N87W RIDGE COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM 17N TO 23N...CROSSING THROUGH HAITI. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CUBA COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 75W. A SURFACE TROUGH APPEARED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS LATE AS 14/1945 UTC...ALONG 57W/58W FROM 19N TO 22N. IT IS APPROACHING THE AREA THAT IS COVERED BY THE 26N65W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 57W AND 65W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES...BASED ON THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 15/0000 UTC...ARE 0.21 TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...AND 0.13 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA...FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 7N80W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. HISPANIOLA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM 17N TO 23N...CROSSING THROUGH HAITI. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CUBA COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 75W. THE GFS FORECASTS FOR 500 MB AND 700 MB SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH COVERING THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 250 MB FORECAST SHOWS A TROUGH COVERING THE AREA FOR THE ENTIRE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 29N47W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 31N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N TO 35N BETWEEN 40W AND 49W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO 25N24W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N27W...TO 30N29W 27N40W AND TO 26N50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT