000 AXNT20 KNHC 142347 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUL 14 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2322 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS FAR IN THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N27W TO 09N27W AND MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 13N BETWEEN 25W-30W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N48W TO 09N44W AND MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND HAS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT IS SHOWING DRY AIR SPREADING ALONG THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE LACK OF CONVECTION. THIS WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN VERY EARLY ON TUESDAY. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT FORMERLY WAS MOVING ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS MOVED INTO THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC OCEAN. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W TO 09N96W. SEE THE PACIFIC TROPICAL DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 11N16W TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 10N20W TO 12N26W THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 12N30W TO 10N42W...THEN RESUMES W OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE FROM 09N47W TO 07N55W 07N58W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 20W-23W. OTHERWISE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ELONGATED AND BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM NEBRASKA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 29N88W TO A 1014 MB LOW IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. IT ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 25N W OF 90W AS WELL AS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N E OF 94W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND A RIDGE E OF 84W IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 27N E OF 88W. OTHERWISE...WEAK PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS PROVIDING WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 5-10 KT WHILE SURFACE RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN. WITHIN 48 HOURS...RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF INFLUENCED BY A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN. SHOWERS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COASTLINES AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE EASTERN GULF BY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF AND A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SE GULF TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS BANKING OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BY EASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N W OF 82W. AN UPPER LEVEL BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N63W EXTENDS A TROUGH TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTH- EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS NORTHERN PUERTO RICO. TRADEWINDS OF 10-15 KT SPREADS ACROSS THE THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR AT LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF LA HISPANIOLA EARLY MONDAY AND CONTINUE WESTWARD INTO CUBA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH HIGH TERRAIN. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN BASIN EARLY TUESDAY. HISPANIOLA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS TROUGH IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N63W WHICH EXTENDS A TROUGH TO THE NORTH- CENTRAL AND NORTH-EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF LA HISPANIOLA EARLY MONDAY. RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR HAITI TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N63W IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH NE OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 30N73W TO 24N72W. SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH ARE FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 71W-75W. SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS ARE ALSO W OF 75W N OF 25N ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING FROM OHIO TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 56W-62W. BESIDES THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WHICH ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS