000 AXNT20 KNHC 131059 TWDAT ZCZC MIAWRKAT ALL TTAA00 130731 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 20N14W TO 10N17W MOVING W AT 10 KT. LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM DAKAR SENEGAL DEPICTS A TROPICAL WAVE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 16W- 21W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N36W TO 8N37W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED AT 10N37W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-12N BETWEEN 35W- 39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 23N85W TO HONDURAS NEAR 14N87W MOVING W AT 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W OF THE W AFRICA TROPICAL WAVE FROM 8N20W TO 8N29W. AN ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N29W TO E OF THE CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE AT 11N35W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE FROM 10N40W TO 6N50W AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 40W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 30N84W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW TO 29N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS S FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 23N85W TO HONDURAS NEAR 14N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER W CUBA W OF 78W. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF FROM 25N- 27N BETWEEN 80W-84W. A 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 26N93W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TROPICAL WAVE IS THE PRIMARY FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS AND S OF CUBA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 78W-83W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA N OF NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND S OF PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REAMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S GUATEMALA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AT 10 KT WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION. HISPANIOLA... RECENT LIGHTNING DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP OVER HISPANIOLA DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 28N61W TO 21N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N34W. IN THE TROPICS...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 16W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 19N36W TO 8N37W MOVING W AT 10 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N76W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS W OF 73W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N61W MOVING W AND SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA