000 AXNT20 KNHC 130550 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 20N35W TO 8N36W DRIFTING W. THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED AT 10N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 35W-37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM W CUBA NEAR 23N84W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 13N85W MOVING W AT 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N23W 9N30W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N37W AND CONTINUES TO 6N50W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N55W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 52W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 30N84W TO 25N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS S FROM W CUBA NEAR 23N84W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 13N85W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER W CUBA W OF 78W...AND INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 80W-83W. A 1014 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N94W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N SUPPORTING THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N87W WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TROPICAL WAVE IS THE PRIMARY FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER W CUBA W OF 78W...AND INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND S OF PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REAMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S GUATEMALA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AT 10 KT WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION. HISPANIOLA... RECENT LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER HISPANIOLA WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER HAITI. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HEATING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N61W TO 25N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N37W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE TROPICS 20N35W TO 8N36W DRIFTING W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 35W-37W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N76W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS W OF 73W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N61W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA