000 AXNT20 KNHC 121804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN LONG-TERM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE LAST 48 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 33W AND 35W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE ENERGY THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W INCLUDING IN CUBA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 8N20W AND 8N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N23W TO 10N33W 10N36W AND 6N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 16W AND 24W... FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W...AND IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 9N BETWEEN 52W AND 58W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INCLUDING THE AREAS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N...AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONNECTS A 24N81W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO A SECOND AND COMPARATIVELY WEAKER 23N91W SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CENTER...TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS IN INTERIOR MEXICO NEAR 23N103W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG THAT COVERS FLORIDA AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N84W TO 29N87W AND 29N89W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 28N90W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 28N95W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 27N IN THE WATER BETWEEN 84W AND 95W...AND IN FLORIDA FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W. A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N92W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA-TO-28N95W SURFACE TROUGH. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN TEXAS...AT THE NAVAL AIR STATIONS IN KINGSVILLE AND IN CORPUS CHRISTI...AND IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN TEXAS...FROM PALACIOS TO BAY CITY TO ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON... LOW CLOUD TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA FROM THE UPPER TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. BROKEN LOW AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF ALABAMA...AND IN FLORIDA FROM MARY ESTHER TO VALPARAISO. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA IN FLORIDA FROM PANAMA CITY TO APALACHICOLA TO MARIANNA. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IN FORT MYERS... BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SARASOTA. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATION KEIR. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...BECOMING NORTHERLY AS THE FLOW CURVES AND HEADS TOWARD PANAMA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM VENEZUELA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES...BASED ON THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE... MIATPTPAN...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 12/1200 UTC... ARE 1.35 IN KINGSTON JAMAICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N...FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA THROUGH PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... THE RAIN THAT WAS OCCURRING IN THE NICARAGUA COASTAL WATERS HAS WEAKENED. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 75W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. HISPANIOLA... A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA CURRENTLY. THE GFS FORECASTS FOR 500 MB AND 700 MB SHOW A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA. THE 250 MB FORECAST SHOWS A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N78W NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 23N80W AT THE COAST OF CUBA. THIS TROUGH REPRESENTS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ENERGY THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL. THE TROUGH HAS WEAKENED SINCE THE TIME OF THE 12/1200 SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW THAT IS AROUND WHERE IT WAS IS SOUTHERLY. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN DOES NOT REFLECT MUCH OF A TROUGH ANYMORE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS NORTHWARD TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND FLORIDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N75W 28N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N61W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 49W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 57W/58W FROM 22N TO 32N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 52W AND 66W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 26N70W... ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 18N70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 18N...TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...WITH THE 28N78W 23N80W SURFACE TROUGH...TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT