000 AXNT20 KNHC 101801 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF COAST OF HAITI. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL AT 10/1800 UTC IS NEAR 16.5N 73.0W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 232 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. CHANTAL IS MOVING WESTWARD 25 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 21N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 68W IN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 72W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM PUERTO RICO TO 20N BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE MONA PASSAGE. THE HAZARDS TO LAND ARE WIND...SURGE... AND RAINFALL. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE AFFECTING HAITI TODAY...EVEN IF CHANTAL WEAKENS. IT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN HISPANIOLA...IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS IS ALONG 10N23W 16N22W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND IT COINCIDES WITH A NEARBY GLOBAL MODEL 700 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A RELATIVE MOISTURE MAXIMUM FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG THAT IS NEAR THE ITCZ IS FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS 14N35W 7N37W... MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. A LOW-LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD VERTICALLY THROUGH 700 MB...TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 93W/94W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AND MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK. GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT ANY IT IS LIKELY THAT ANY REMNANTS OF THIS WAVE MAY MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN DURING THE DAY TODAY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N...POSSIBLE MORE RELATED TO THE 24N97W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SENEGAL AND GAMBIA...ALONG 17W FROM 13N TO 14N... TO 12N23W 12N26W 10N33W AND 8N36W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N36W TO 5N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N40W 6N45W 3N51W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INCLUDING THE AREAS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N80W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SURROUNDS THIS FEATURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 85W...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTH OF 31N TO THE WEST OF 74W...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM JAMAICA NORTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY WESTWARD DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 24N TO 31N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 82W AND 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W...COVERING THE ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N97W IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 93W AND 102W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 91W AND THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO ALONG 98W. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N91W ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 88W AND 94W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG ALONG THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N TO 21N. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS THE AREA FROM THE COAST OF HONDURAS TO 17N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N65W...THROUGH 30N76W...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO A GULF OF MEXICO 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N89W...TO 24N95W...TO A MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N97W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH RAIN AND THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE COMPARATIVELY MORE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. MOSTLY SCATTERED MULTI- LAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF AREA. THE KINGSVILLE NAVAL AIR STATION IS REPORTING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. BAY CITY TEXAS IS REPORTING HEAVY RAIN AND A VISIBILITY OF 1.5 MILES. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED AT THE PEARLAND REGIONAL AIRPORT NEAR HOUSTON AND IN SUGARLAND. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS IN PATTERSON LOUISIANA. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN THE NEW ORLEANS METRO- POLITAN AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN THE MOBILE ALABAMA METROPOLITAN AREA. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED BETWEEN PENSACOLA AND MILTON FLORIDA. RAIN AND THUNDER ARE FOUND BETWEEN MILTON AND CRESTVIEW...AND NEAR MARIANNA. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS OVER VALPARAISO. LOW CLOUD AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE IN APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN TALLAHASSEE... IN BROOKSVILLE...AND THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TO THE VANDENBERG AIRPORT NEAR TAMPA. THUNDER AND RAIN ARE FOUND IN PERRY. LOW CLOUD AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA FROM THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION TO PUNTA GORDA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER TO 65W. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TO 75W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES...BASED ON THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE... MIATPTPAN...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 10/1200 UTC... ARE 0.62 IN TRINIDAD...0.34 IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.26 IN BARBADOS. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N IN COLOMBIA TO 8N81W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N83W SOUTHERN COSTA RICA... INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 77W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT T.S. CHANTAL. EXPECT EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND 9 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. HISPANIOLA... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WILL BE PASSING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE GFS FORECASTS FOR 500 MB AND 700 MB SHOW A TROUGH FOR MOST OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE AREA TRANSITIONS INTO A RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS A RIDGE DURING THE PERIOD. PLEASE REFER TO WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/EXPERIMENTAL/ RAINFALL/DATA/FRAINCOMBO1.GIF FOR MORE RAINFALL INFORMATION. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N52W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 46W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N49W 28N53W TO 29N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W 28N50W 27N53W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 54W AND 70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 28N36W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N39W 28N41W AND 25N44W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 28N40W 25N44W AND 26N46W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N65W...THROUGH 30N76W...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO A GULF OF MEXICO 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N89W...TO 24N95W...TO A MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N97W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF THE 31N49W 28N53W 29N60W SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 22N32W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 18N...TO THE EAST OF THE 31N39W 28N41W 25N44W SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT