000 AXNT20 KNHC 051756 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUL 05 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N30W TO 22N30W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF INCREASED DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 12N- 22N BETWEEN 26W-31W. SAHARAN DUST SURROUNDS A GOOD PORTION OF THE WAVE...WHICH IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE AXIS. HOWEVER...FARTHER SOUTH...OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE DUST...A CLUSTER OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 1014 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N26W. THE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 25W-33W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N53W TO 18N45W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 42W-54W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 46W-54W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N79W TO 19N80W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS BECOMING MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS A PORTION OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE CONTINUES TO FRACTURE NORTHWARD...HOWEVER GLOBAL MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAK 700 MB TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE WAVE N OF 17N BETWEEN 75W-83W...WHICH IS LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH MAXIMIZED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...AND PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 08N26W TO 07N34W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N34W TO 06N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 25W-33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 14W-20W... AND FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 49W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N96W NE TO 29N83W WHICH IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE GULF WITH MOIST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. CONSIDERABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS FOCUSED SOUTH AND EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ANALYZED FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W SW TO 25N97W WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 19N BETWEEN 84W-96W. ANOTHER AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...FLORIDA KEYS...AND FLORIDA STRAITS AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AS FRACTURED ENERGY FROM A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF THE SE GULF. BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY NEXT WEEK...A SW NORTH ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PRIMARILY PROVIDE FOR E-SE WINDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED W OF 75W WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ENERGY CONTINUES TO FRACTURE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 16N BETWEEN 75W-84W. THIS ACTIVITY IS LARGELY SUPPORTED BY MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED INLAND ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 83W-87W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AND GENERALLY TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 15N64W TO 21N56W AND IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 66W...INCLUDING MANY OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. LOOKING AHEAD...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 50W WILL GRADUALLY MOVE CLOSER TO THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AND BRING INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS IS PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ISLAND UNTIL THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE SW NORTH ATLC AROUND A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N70W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 36N67W. HOWEVER...A NARROW UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N81W TO 21N77W IS SUPPORTIVE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 27N W OF 74W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...FLORIDA KEYS...AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N61W SUPPORTING A SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 61W-66W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDS INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N46W TO 28N55W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING GENERALLY N OF 31N BETWEEN 37W- 47W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES NEAR 38N26W SW TO 26N40W THEN WEST TO 25N55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN