000 AXNT20 KNHC 031052 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUL 03 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS ALONG 20W/21W FROM 10N-18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH A WELL DEFINED CURVATURE IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. A MID LEVEL SWIRL IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N33W TO 5N41W MOVING W-NW 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH A WELL DEFINED CURVATURE IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS ALONG 61W FROM 12N-21N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS WITHIN AN AREA VOID OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS SHOW A SLIGHT CURVATURE. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 12N21W TO 12N26W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N32W TO 12N36W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N41W AND CONTINUES INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 18W24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 45W-47W AND S OF 2N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 47W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE GULF N OF 21N W OF 88W EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 03/0900 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W AND CONTINUES TO 24N94W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH N OF 26N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-26N W OF 95W TO INLAND OVER NE MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE W TIP OF CUBA THEN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 25N83W ACROSS CUBA NEAR HAVANA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF 88W TO OVER FLORIDA. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N88W TO INLAND OVER THE W PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SE OF LINE FROM 25N88W TO S MEXICO IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SURFACE TROUGH OVER CUBA WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE FAR SW GULF LATE TODAY THEN DRIFT W TOWARD THE COAST NEAR VERACRUZ THROUGH FRI BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE N GULF WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE NW GULF THROUGH LATE FRI IN PHASE WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY FORM IN THE NW GULF BY LATE SAT AND DRIFT NW THROUGH SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND IS ANCHORED OVER BELIZE ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS THE W TIP OF CUBA. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE AREA W OF 82W IS DOMINATED BY DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE AND EXTENDS FROM 18N82W ACROSS CUBA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR HAVANA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE AND EXTENDS FROM 20N86W TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N W OF 75W AND W OF 83W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN AND IS ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N75W IN COLOMBIA ALONG 11N78W THEN ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 80W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN TODAY. THE N SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE FAR SW GULF LATE TODAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES IS GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU THEN START TO INCREASE AGAIN FRI AS RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE E CARIBBEAN SAT. HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LOW IS N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE ISLAND FRI AND SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE W TIP OF CUBA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE W ATLC NEAR MELBOURNE CONTINUING TO 30N80W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 20N75W ALONG 26N77W TO BEYOND 32N79W. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 24N73W CROSSING OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N TO HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 68W-71W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL REALIGN E TO W ALONG 35N THROUGH SAT. THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH LATE THU FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE FRI THROUGH SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW