000 AXNT20 KNHC 021740 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUL 02 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N30W TO 10N32W MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SLIGHT SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO CORRESPONDS WITH A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N53W TO 10N54W MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT AT THE SURFACE AND IS CONFIRMED BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM AROUND 1300 UTC. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N77W TO 11N77W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY THAT IS BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH MOISTURE ALREADY PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DIRECTLY NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS TO WEST FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 79W-84W. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED MORE WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAN WITH THE WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W TO 12N21W 11N23W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 11N23W AND CONTINUES ALONG 11N31W 8N40W 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 33W-39W...AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 41W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MAIN AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG 87W. STATIONARY FRONT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE ALONG 31N87W 25N94W 26N99W...AS OF 1500 UTC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FARTHER EAST ALONG 29N85W TO 23N87W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TO THE SOUTH FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 94W-99W. MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ACROSS FLORIDA ASSOCIATED MORE WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH. WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SE GULF REACHING UP TO 15 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 21N91W TO 13N92W. NO SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE TROUGH EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY WELL TO THE EAST OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A CLUSTER OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 79W-84W. THIS IS LIKELY A COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE...AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE WAVE ITSELF DOES NOT HAVE MUCH ACTIVITY NEAR IT. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 86W- 89W. SOUTH OF THE WAVE...THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 79W-83W. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND A FEW LOW- LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS PRESENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR A FEW 25 KT WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EAST OF THE WAVE. ALOFT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 69W. HISPANIOLA... A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 69W-71W. MODERATE MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER THE ISLAND INDICATED BY TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BUILD AS THE DAY GOES ON. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC AROUND A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 35N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA WEST OF 78W ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALOFT...A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 78W...WHILE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N71W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE EAST CENTERED NEAR 20N49W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE NORTH ALONG 34N64W TO 27N60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY BROAD SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A PAIR OF 1030 MB AZORES HIGHS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER HIGH CENTER NEAR 20N49W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SINKING INTO THE AREA NORTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 36N47W TO 27N58W. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE BASIN NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS...BUT IS NOT CAUSING ANY ACTIVE WEATHER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON