000 AXNT20 KNHC 021036 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUL 02 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 13N31W TO 5N31W MOVING W-SW NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS S OF AN AREA OF VERY DRY AIR AND A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST WHICH IS SUPPRESSING THE WAVE SOUTHWARD. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 21N52W TO 8N50W MOVING W-SW NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS WITHIN AN AREA VOID OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY W OF THE WAVE TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS INDICATED. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 22N73W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 12N77W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED ON THE TRAILING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE AND AN UPPER TROUGH ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY SURROUND THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N28W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N33W THEN CONTINUES ALONG 8N39W 2N43W TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 32W-45W AND S OF 2N W OF 47W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 12W-22W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE GULF W OF 83W EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT AT 02/0900 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE GULF NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA AND CONTINUES ALONG 27N92W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM S AND E OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN TUXPAN AND BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 29N86W ALONG 26N87W TO 22N92W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM 30N89W ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO 28N93W. THIS TROUGH IS INDICATING A WIND SHIFT ONLY. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF 85W TO ACROSS FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE W PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NW AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE LATE TODAY THROUGH THU. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED AND SHIFT N AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN W TO NW ACROSS THE W GULF WED THROUGH FRI. THE TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI INTO SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 68W AND IS ANCHORED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THIS UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN 64W-73W. THE AREA W OF 73W IS DOMINATED BY DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 71W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND IS ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND IS BEING PULLED N IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. IT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W ALONG 12N77W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W CONTINUING INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO ACROSS PANAMA E OF 79W. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WED TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE WED. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED AND THU THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT. HISPANIOLA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER HISPANIOLA AND COUPLED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ARE GENERATING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND AND EXTENDING N INTO THE SW ATLC. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. HOWEVER WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD INTENSIFY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE ISLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ENTER THE W ATLC NEAR 23N80W AND CONTINUE N TO BEYOND 32N77W IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 78W TO OVER FLORIDA AND CUBA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N52W ALONG 28N59W TO AN UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC NEAR 26N70W TO ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N TO OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 66W-74W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N58W ALONG 29N62W TO BEYOND 32N63W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE FAR NW ATLC TUE THROUGH SAT. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC WILL MOVE W TONIGHT INTO WED THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES NW ACROSS THE W ATLC LATE WED THROUGH FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW