000 AXNT20 KNHC 011749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUL 01 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N25W TO 8N25W MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE CORRESPONDS WITH A 700 MB TROUGH AXIS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N45W TO 7N45W MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT AT THE SURFACE AND IS CONFIRMED BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM AROUND 1300 UTC. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N70W TO 12N72W MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 66W-72W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 72W-77W. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS NOW BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS IS DUE TO THE LACK OF MUCH WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL NOW BE DISCUSSED IN THE CARIBBEAN SECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 9N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N26W 10N37W 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 36W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 87W. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 31N87W 28N89W 28N95W 27N98W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG 31N84W 25N90W. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND UP TO 80 NM WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS FAIRLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT SINKING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT OVER THE WESTERN GULF INCREASING UP TO 15 KT OVER THE EASTERN GULF. SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH...FORMER TROPICAL WAVE...IS ALONG 23N87W TO 12N87W. THE TROUGH IS INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 80W-87W. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. A FEW CLUSTERS OF ACTIVITY ARE IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN NEAR COSTA RICA AND COLOMBIA NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO COSTA RICA TO COLOMBIA ALONG 10N. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THIS AREA ALONG 81W. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ENHANCING ACTIVITY NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 68W-76W. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE BASIN. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST AND WILL BE STRETCHED NORTHWARD. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST BRINGING MORE MOISTURE IN THE CENTRAL AND THEN WESTERN CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA... A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 71W/72W IS DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS HISPANIOLA CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 68W-72W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER WESTERN HAITI. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO IMPACT HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE DAY CONTINUES TO HEAT UP. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC AROUND A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 39N51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF 28N WEST OF 77W ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO NORTH OF HISPANIOLA FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 66W-71W ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 71W. ALOFT...A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 78W...WHILE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST ATLC. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE EAST CENTERED NEAR 17N51W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE NORTH ALONG 32N60W TO 28N56W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY BROAD SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1032 MB AZORES HIGH. BROAD UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER HIGH CENTER NEAR 17N51W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON