000 AXNT20 KNHC 011129 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUL 01 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N24W TO 9N 22W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 23N43W TO 12N42 MOVING NW NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS IN AN AREA VOID OF DEEP MOISTURE AND NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 21N66W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 11N69W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 66W-72W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 21N86W TO OVER HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NEAR 16N86W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE IS IN AN AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N BETWEEN 80W-88W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES TO 13N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS WEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N25W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N36W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 35W-38W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 33W-44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 9N BETWEEN 14W-18W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N88W TO THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF BETWEEN PENSACOLA AND FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA AND CONTINUES ALONG 27N90W TO 28N94W WHERE IT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK N AS A WARM FRONT TO A 1009 MB LOW JUST S OF GALVESTON TEXAS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TRAILING THE FRONT FROM MOBILE ALABAMA ALONG 28N90W TO 29N94W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF 86W TO ACROSS FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING GENERATED BY THE UPPER LOW AND ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 27N87W TO 24N91W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE S GULF. STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NW AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH TUE BECOMING DIFFUSE AND DISSIPATING BY WED. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND ALSO AS A TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. A SECOND WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W-83W. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 13N BETWEEN 63W-85W WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 82W-85W. W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT THEN THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER HISPANIOLA AND COUPLED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TODAY INCREASING THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W TO 31N76W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N W OF 76W TO OVER FLORIDA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC AND AN UPPER LOW NEAR 33N48W ALONG 28N55W TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 26N63W TO ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TO OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 62W-69W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N56W TO BEYOND 32N58W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE FAR NW ATLC TUE THROUGH FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW