000 AXNT20 KNHC 291145 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N...MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 20W AND 28W IN THE ITCZ. THE WAVE IS ILL-DEFINED AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALIGNS WELL WITH A 700 MB TROUGH. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N56W 15N60W...INTO EASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N62W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N/12N BETWEEN NORTH- WESTERN VENEZUELA AND 80W...AND FROM 12N80W... ACROSS THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE EARLIER NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS IN NICARAGUA...EL SALVADOR...AND HONDURAS HAS MOVED WESTWARD...EITHER IN EL SALVADOR STILL AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM COSTA RICA TO NICARAGUA AND TO THE SOUTH OF GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 76W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W AND 7N25W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 8N25W AND IT CONTINUES TO 4N34W AND 3N36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 29N88W IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W ALONG THE BORDER OF MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 23N95W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND COASTAL MEXICO FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 90W AND MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH 24N67W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO A 1014 MB GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N92W...TOWARD THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST IN... ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON AND GALVESTON...IN LOUISIANA IN LAKE CHARLES...IN LAFAYETTE WITH RAIN...IN NEW IBERIA...AND IN SLIDELL. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN MISSISSIPPI FROM GULFPORT EASTWARD...IN GULF SHORES ALABAMA WITH RAIN AND THUNDER...MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN AND THUNDER COVER THE FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF PERRY. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AT BEING OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...AT KMIU OFF THE TEXAS COAST...AND KDLP OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N65W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 15N66W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 64W AND 65W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW COVERS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND PARTS OF CUBA FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. BROAD NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N/12N BETWEEN NORTH- WESTERN VENEZUELA AND 80W...AND FROM 12N80W... ACROSS THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE EARLIER NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS IN NICARAGUA...EL SALVADOR...AND HONDURAS HAS MOVED WESTWARD...EITHER IN EL SALVADOR STILL AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM COSTA RICA TO NICARAGUA AND TO THE SOUTH OF GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 76W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 73W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N65W...ABOUT 350 NM TO THE EAST- NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS A RIDGE WILL BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA...UNTIL THE END OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD... BEING REPLACED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE MOSTLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF TROUGH THAT WILL BE ALONG 64W AND 65W/66W WITH TIME. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD WITH TIME...ENOUGH IN ORDER TO PASS THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DAY TWO OF THE 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...THROUGH 32N...AND REACHING NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...PASSING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...TO 29N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W ALONG THE BORDER OF MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N43W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N42W AND 14N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 39W AND 44W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH 24N67W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO A 1014 MB GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N92W...TOWARD THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N43W TO 21N45W TO 4N48W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 54W AND 59W...FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT