000 AXNT20 KNHC 290555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N...MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. IN THE ITCZ. THE WAVE IS ILL-DEFINED AT THE SURFACE...BUT ALIGNS WELL WITH A 700 MB TROUGH. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N55W 13N58W...INTO EASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N60W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N52W 15N57W 11N63W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N/12N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W...AND FROM 12N80W...ACROSS SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N IN PANAMA TO 10N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF NICARAGUA. NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...SOUTHERN HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 9N20W AND 8N25W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 8N25W AND IT CONTINUES TO 4N35W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 41W...MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 20W...FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...FROM 1N TO 7N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 41W AND 53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 29N87W IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...SCATTERED STRONG IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND IN SOUTH- EASTERN LOUISIANA. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 90W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 24N94W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND COASTAL MEXICO FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 26N62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W... THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO A 1014 MB GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N92W... TO THE MEXICO COAST ALONG 24N/25N. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM MARY ESTHER TO VALPARAISO TO DESTIN. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS WITH RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN CRESTVIEW FLORIDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN MOBILE ALABAMA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N66W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 16N67W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW COVERS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS FROM 19N TO 26N BETWEEN 73W AND 83W. BROAD NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N/12N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W...AND FROM 12N80W...ACROSS SOUTHERN NICARAGUA BEYOND 10N90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N IN PANAMA TO 10N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF NICARAGUA. NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...SOUTHERN HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 73W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W. HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N66W...ABOUT 350 NM TO THE EAST- NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THE AREA. EARLIER AREAS OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WERE IN HISPANIOLA ABOUT 28/2045 UTC AND LATER HAVE WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS A RIDGE WILL BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA...UNTIL THE END OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD... BEING REPLACED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE MOSTLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF TROUGH THAT WILL BE ALONG 64W AND 65W/66W WITH TIME. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD WITH TIME...ENOUGH IN ORDER TO PASS THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DAY TWO OF THE 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...THROUGH 32N...AND REACHING NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...PASSING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...TO 29N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF GEORGIA AND ALABAMA ON 28/2045 UTC. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. A SECOND AREA OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N44W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N41W AND 17N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 39W AND 43W...AND FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N45W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N62W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO A 1014 MB GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N92W...TO THE MEXICO COAST ALONG 24N/25N. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 22N43W TO 12N45W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 55W AND 59W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT