000 AXNT20 KNHC 281053 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUN 28 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N21W TO 05N23W MOVING WEST NEAR 5 KT. THE WAVE AXIS IS MOSTLY EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE ITCZ. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION COINCIDING WITH PATCHES OF HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN 200 NM EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 08N-11N. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT INDICATES THE WAVE IS BEING ENGULFED BY SAL DRY AIR WHICH MAY BE LIMITING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N50W TO 06N56W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED MAINLY IN A HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 230 NM WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 11N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 48W-51W. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CUBA WITH AXIS ALONG 22N74W TO 13N77W MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 170 NM WEST OF THE AXIS FROM 18N-20N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN WEST COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 08N22W 06N35W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N35W AND CONTINUES ALONG 03N42W 01N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 01S-08N BETWEEN 41W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 26N89W. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW OF 5-10 KT IS AROUND THE RIDGE. ALOFT...UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING SW FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO CENTRAL MEXICO. THE TROUGH HAS EMBEDDED AN UPPER LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 23N93W. THE UPPER LOW IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SE GULF WHICH MAY BE ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CUBA WITH AXIS ALONG 22N74W TO 13N77W. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 170 NM WEST OF THE AXIS FROM 18N-20N. LARGE CLUSTERS WITH STRONG CONVECTION AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS EXTENDED TO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF 12N. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGION IS MOSTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WHICH MOVES ACROSS FROM COSTA RICA TO COLOMBIA. ALOFT...BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR 12N75W WHILE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING COVERS THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN. TRADEWINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS ARE 20-25 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND ITS AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OFF WESTERN CUBA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 25 KT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A NEW WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES CARRYING LOTS OF MOISTURE. HISPANIOLA... PRIOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS DISSIPATED. FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING AS A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BRINGING LOTS OF MOISTURE AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERE INSTABILITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE WEST ATLC AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 31N59W. ALOFT...AN UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 76W...WHILE AN UPPER LOW SPINS TO THE EAST NEAR 23N64W. THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 58W-64W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES EXTENDING FROM A 1037 MB HIGH NEAR 46N22W. UPPER RIDGING ALSO COVERS THE EXTREME TROPICAL ATLC. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DRY AIR EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO NEAR 50W N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR