000 AXNT20 KNHC 272341 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDING FROM 13N22W TO 4N23W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES WEST OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N47W TO 2N49W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 40W-48W...AND WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 52W-55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 36W-39W. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 21N73W TO 11N72W MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT. A MODERATE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS...WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE LEVELS NEAR THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 68W-73W. A CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 72W-75W. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 22N84W TO 8N84W MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE HAS MODERATE MOISTURE SIGNAL NEAR THE AXIS PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY THROUGHOUT CUBA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE CONTINUING INTO THE E PACIFIC. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 76W-86W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO INFLUENCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 8N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 8N25W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N35W 5N44W. ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES AND IS DISCUSSED IN THAT SECTION ABOVE ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N90W. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE RIDGE. ALOFT...UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE REMAINDER BECOMES A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 22N95W. THE UPPER LOW IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 86W-92W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA IS ALSO PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND SUPPORTS SEVERAL ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 26N-29N. A FEW WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 84W- 93W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST IS ALONG 84W. DRY AIR OVER WATER IS LIMITING CONVECTION NEAR MUCH OF THE WAVE EXCEPT FOR STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE WAVE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 76W-86W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE SECOND WAVE IS NEAR 73W. THE STRONGEST MOISTURE SIGNALS ARE NEAR THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN ENDS OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG ACTIVITY IS ALSO OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ALOFT...BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR 14N79W WHILE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING COVERS THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS THROUGHOUT THE AREA. BOTH WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST. HISPANIOLA... STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 71W-73W. MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY COVERS THE ISLAND EAST OF 71W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGHER MOISTURE NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. INCREASED MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ISLAND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY REACH THE ISLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE WEST ATLC AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 30N60W. ALOFT...AN UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 76W...WHILE AN UPPER LOW SPINS TO THE EAST NEAR 25N63W. THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 24N63W TO 19N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 59W-67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 60W-64W. A SECOND WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 57W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 42W...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 23W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES EXTENDING FROM A 1038 MB HIGH NEAR 46N22W. UPPER RIDGING ALSO COVERS THE EXTREME TROPICAL ATLC. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY INDICATE THAT A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO NEAR 45W AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON