000 AXNT20 KNHC 260003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ITCZ FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 35W AND 39W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N...MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...TO WESTERN HAITI...TO 13N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE WAS IN THE MONA PASSAGE 24 HOURS AGO. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/1200 UTC FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO WAS 1.93 INCHES...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE... MIATPTPAN. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT JUST IS RELATED TO THE WAVE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT ALSO IS WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W AND 8N24W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 8N24W AND IT CONTINUES TO 8N30W 7N34W 3N43W AND 2N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N TO THE EAST OF 19W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W....AND FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 9N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 29N87W IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...SCATTERED STRONG IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND IN SOUTH- EASTERN LOUISIANA. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 104W IN MEXICO. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF HURRICANE COSME THAT IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...NEAR 16N91W...INTO THE SOUTH- WESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 21N92W... TO 24N92W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA...AND IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N TO 20N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER ALONG 14N/15N TO 17N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N84W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N66W... TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 23N95W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN PORT ISABEL TEXAS...AND IN LOUISIANA AT AMELIA/LAKE PALOURDE. A CLOUD CEILING OF 7500 FEET IS OBSERVED IN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT IS REPORTING CLOUD CEILINGS AT 5500 FEET AND AT 9000 FEET. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN SARASOTA FLORIDA...AND AT NAPLES WITH RAINSHOWERS. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN TEXAS AT ELLINGTON FIELD IN HOUSTON...IN THE NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA METROPOLITAN AREA...IN FLORIDA AT THE NAVAL AIR STATIONS IN PENSACOLA AND AT WHITING FIELD...IN VALPARAISO...AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. FAIR SKIES/ CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... A CLOUD CEILING AT 7000 FEET IS REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATION KGBK...AND AT 5000 FEET OR LOWER AT THE ICAO STATION KEIR. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 27N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...TO CUBA ALONG 80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN CUBA TO THE EAST OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 28N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ALREADY-DISSIPATED ACTIVITY FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 62W AND 75W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 80W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 11N62W IN THE SOUTH- EASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO 16N81W...TOWARD THE COAST OF BELIZE/THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WAS IN THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 81W... INCLUDING IN SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA...AT 25/1745 UTC. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED WITH TIME. SCATTERED STRONG IS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 11N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN PANAMA FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W...AND IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 63W FROM 11N TO 20N. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W. HISPANIOLA... HISPANIOLA FINDS ITSELF TO THE SOUTH OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 27N70W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...TO CUBA ALONG 80W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTH- WESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/1200 UTC FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO WAS 1.93 INCHES...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG BETWEEN 71W AND 72W NEAR 19N AND THE BORDER WITH HAITI. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ISLAND. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N...MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 58W AND 64W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT THIS WAVE MAY BE AFFECTING HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL BE CROSSING HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH. A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM JAMAICA TO CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA WILL BE A TROUGH... TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 25N66W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 26N43W TO 16N50W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 24W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N51W...TO 30N52W AND 28N54W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 38W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N58W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N66W...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 23N95W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 28N50W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 42W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...EXCEPT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE...SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET...WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 8N TO 15N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT