000 AXNT20 KNHC 250602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N68W TO 09N68W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W-NW AT 5 KT TO 10 KT IN THE SW PERIPHERY OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE ATLC...PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW HUMIDITY ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF LA HISPANIOLA. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE AXIS IS EMBEDDED IN A HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT AT BOTH LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS HAPPENING NE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE AND BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE WEST ATLC AND THE BROAD RIDGE THAT SPREADS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE MONA PASSAGE. TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 18N57W TO 09N57W. THIS WAVE AXIS IS EMBEDDED IN A HIGH HUMIDITY ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER IN VERY DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN THE SW ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE...VERY DRY AIR IS OBSERVED CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM GRANADA OF WIDESPREAD DUST. PATCHES OF DRY AIR IN THIS REGION ARE ALSO DISCERNIBLE IN THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 275 NM SE OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 14N WHERE THE HIGHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONCENTRATION IS LOCATED IN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 12N16W TO 08N20W 07N24W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 07N24W AND IT CONTINUES TO 05N32W 03N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 21W-30W AND FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 30W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD SURFACE RIDGING FROM A SET OF HIGH PRESSURES N OF THE AREA OVER THE NORTH ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS INTO THE GULF GENERATING RETURN FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. THE WEST AND EAST SEA BREEZES OF FLORIDA HAVE GENERATED A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF FROM 27N82W TO 25N82W. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70 NM WEST OF THE TROUGH AND 30 NM TO THE EAST OF IT S OF 28N. BOTH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS W OF 88W WHICH IS SUPPRESSING ANY TYPE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERNS IN THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE IN THE BASIN IS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N68W TO 09N68W. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW HUMIDITY ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF LA HISPANIOLA. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE AXIS IS EMBEDDED IN A HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT AT BOTH LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS HAPPENING NE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE AND BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE WEST ATLC AND THE BROAD RIDGE THAT SPREADS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE MONA PASSAGE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE FAR WEST CARIBBEAN AND THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN COMBINED WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVEL MODERATE MOISTURE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED/ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 74W-87W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 12N IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WHICH MOVES ACROSS FROM THE E PAC TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. TRADEWINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN RANGING FROM 20- 25 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF HAITI BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND IS LIKELY TO VANISH IN THE WAKE OF INTERACTION WITH A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 57W IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND PUERTO RICO VERY EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. MODERATE SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION TO THIS WAVE. A LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BY WEDNESDAY AND HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED TO IT. HISPANIOLA... DRY CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER HAITI WHILE LIGHT TRADEWINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE ACROSS THE ENTIRE ISLAND. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N68W TO 09N68W. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW HUMIDITY ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF LA HISPANIOLA. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE AXIS IS EMBEDDED IN A HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT AT BOTH LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS HAPPENING NE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE AND BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE WEST ATLC AND THE BROAD RIDGE THAT SPREADS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF HAITI BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND IS LIKELY TO VANISH IN THE WAKE OF INTERACTION WITH A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 57W IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GENERATING RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE ISLAND. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 13N FROM A SET OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. EXCEPT FOR THE AREAS DISCUSSED ABOVE...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW AN OVERALL DRY ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER BASIN WIDE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS