000 AXNT20 KNHC 241751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N52W TO 6N52W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE HAS MOVED W OF THE SAHARAN DUST THAT COVERS THE E ATLC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 50W-55W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N65W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N65W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE N PORTION OF THIS WAVE HAS BROKEN OFF AND IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN...SEE BELOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N24W TO 7N30W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N38W TO 4N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 19W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 25W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE N GULF TO 28N91W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 91W-94W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 25N83W COVERING THE THE E GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N E OF 87W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO TEXAS WITH A 1018 MB HIGH LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN TAMPICO AND TUXPAN GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON IS THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 13N66W OVER E PUERTO RICO TO 20N65W. THIS TROUGH DEVELOPED FROM THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS FURTHER S OVER SOUTH AMERICA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER PUERTO RICO AND NORTHWARD. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N83W COVERING THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 79W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 82W-84W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS. THIS IS DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS TO OVER HAITI NEAR 21N71W INCLUDING SHOWERS OVER JAMAICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W ALONG 11N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO INLAND OVER PANAMA. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W THROUGH TUE BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER SOUTH AMERICA. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES TUE MORNING THEN MOVE W-NW REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI AS IT WEAKENS. HISPANIOLA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE ISLAND AND COUPLED WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE MOVING FROM E TO W ACROSS THE ISLAND STARTING ON WED AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN AND STEADILY INCREASES THROUGH FRI AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER HISPANIOLA THU INTO FRI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W AND IS CENTERED NEAR 25N74W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 71W-77W INCLUDING THE ISLANDS BETWEEN THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS N OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N- 25N BETWEEN 58W-71W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A LARGE PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE ATLC FROM 10N-20N E OF 50W AND N OF 20N E OF 30W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ATLC THROUGH FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW