000 AXNT20 KNHC 241044 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N62W INTO VENEZUELA TO 04N63W MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. A LOW HUMIDITY ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS HINDERING CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. WITH A MORE DEFINED WAVE SIGNAL AT THE 700 MB LEVEL...THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT COLOMBIA EARLY ON TUESDAY WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE THAT MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION IN THE IMMEDIATE SURROUNDINGS OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N49W TO 05N53W MOVING W-NW AT 5-10 KT. PRETTY DISCERNIBLE AT 700 MB IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...A SUBTLE INCREASE IN AREAL MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LEVELS COINCIDES WITH AN AUGMENT IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 130 NM WEST OF THE AXIS N OF 10N. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 10N14W TO 07N20W 06N25W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 06N26W AND IT CONTINUES TO 07N35W 08N42W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXES BETWEEN 15W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 29W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING GENERATED WITHIN 100 NM OF IT AS DEPICTED IN RADAR IMAGERY. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED IN THE SE GULF FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 27N EAST OF 85W. THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM A NARROW/ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND A RIDGE EAST OF 86W. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES SUPPORTED BY THE PRESENCE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS THESE WEATHER PATTERNS IN THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL LATE TUESDAY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM LOUISIANA TO THE WEST CARIBBEAN WHILE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SIDES OF THE BASIN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...SW TO JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN THE COASTLINES OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. THESE ARE MAINLY ASSOCIATED TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A WAVE AXIS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS VENEZUELA EXTENDS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN EAST OF 63W SOUTH OF 13N...HOWEVER NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO ALONG 19N63W TO 14N63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 17N. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT ABOUNDS IN THE REGION WITH STRONGER TRADEWINDS UP TO 25 KT PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN THE COURSE OF 48 HOURS THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER VENEZUELA IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN CARRYING A SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH IT. THE TRAILING WAVE CURRENTLY WITH AXIS NEAR 51W IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES BY LATE TUESDAY BRINGING LOTS OF MOISTURE WITH IT. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SINCE TUE AFTERNOON. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY LOWER LEVELS DRY CONDITIONS OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND MODERATE MOISTURE OVER HAITI WITH LIGHT TRADEWINDS OF 5-10 KT. CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AS DISCUSSED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY EAST OF PUERTO RICO ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAINSHOWERS DURING MONDAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SURFACE DAYLIGHT HEATING. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 13N FROM A SET OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW AN OVERALL DRY ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER BASIN WIDE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS