000 AXNT20 KNHC 231751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N44W TO 4N46W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DENSE SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE AREA E OF THIS WAVE TO AFRICA LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 31W-43W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N56W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N56W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. PATCHES OF SAHARAN DUST ARE W OF THIS WAVE TO THE PREVIOUS TROPICAL WAVE AND CONTINUES TO LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 10N57W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS NO LONGER IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AS IS LOCATED INLAND OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 9N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N32W TO 10N42W. THE ITCZ BECOMES DISRUPTED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES NEAR 8N48W TO 8N55W WHERE IT IS AGAIN DISRUPTED BY THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-10N E OF 22W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING N OVER KENTUCKY WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO OVER THE N GULF COAST TO 28N88W SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N W OF 83W TO OVER FLORIDA TO TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 84W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH A 1018 MB HIGH LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN VERACRUZ AND TUXPAN WITH ACCOMPANYING CLEAR SKIES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH AN UPPER LOW N OF E CUBA TO S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 17N84W COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W ALONG 11N81W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND W PANAMA S OF 11N W OF 81W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN MOSTLY S TO SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ALOFT. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY WITHIN A 90 NM OF LINE FROM PUERTO RICO ALONG 16N74W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO E CARIBBEAN MON REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND THE W CARIBBEAN BY THU. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU. HISPANIOLA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL ATLC IS DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE ISLAND AND IS GENERATING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LOW N OF E CUBA REMAINING STATIONARY THROUGH MON BEFORE PULLING NE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON MON AND TUE AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE EVEN MORE ON LATE WED AHEAD OF A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN WED INCREASING SHOWERS FOR HISPANIOLA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS GRADUALLY MOVED NE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM JUST OFF MELBOURNE ALONG 31N80W TO OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 45 NM W OF THE TROUGH S OF 29N. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A LARGE PLUME OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE ATLC N OF 10N E OF 30W THEN THINS OVER THE ARE FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN 30W-58W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ATLC THROUGH THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW