000 AXNT20 KNHC 211121 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUN 21 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF BARRY IS IN MEXICO...1009 MB...NEAR 20N99W IN MEXICO. THE MAIN HAZARD THAT WILL BE AFFECTING LAND WILL BE THE CONTINUED RAINFALL. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES... IN SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE THREAT OF MAY PERSIST IN SOUTHERN MEXICO AFTER THE LOW CENTER DISSIPATES. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO 24N94W AND 27N97W ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 22N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 100W AND 102W... ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 25W AND 32W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 38W AND 45W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N72W...CURVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...CUTTING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN HAITI...TO 12N75W..ABOUT 60 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHOSE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 68W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND WESTERN CUBA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 8N20W AND 8N24W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 7N26W AND IT CONTINUES TO 6N29W 9N37W AND 9N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 15W AND 16W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT ACCOMPANIES THE TWO ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVES IS IN THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA TO 29N86W IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT MEANDERS FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ALONG 30N/ 31N TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTH OF 23N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W 30N77W TO 28N80W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY-TO-NORTH- WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 86W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N92W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPIRALS AWAY FROM THE AREA OF THE REMNANT LOW OF BARRY. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 86W...MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND MERGING INTO THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N67W 28N76W...CROSSING FLORIDA ALONG 27N/28N...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N91W...TOWARD THE MEXICO GULF COASTAL PLAINS THAT ARE NEAR 23N98W. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN TEXAS IN MCALLEN AND ALICE...IN FLORIDA IN CRESTVIEW IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...IN TALLAHASSEE AND PERRY. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KBBF...KHQI...AND KDLP. FAIR SKIES/ CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 32N67W-TO-HISPANIOLA-TO-NORTHERN COLOMBIA TROUGH SPANS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 80W. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE COUNTRIES OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA...INTO CENTRAL PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE 9N77W AT THE COLOMBIA COAST AND 14N83W AT THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 67W AND 80W. HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N71W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF HAITI...TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA NEAR 9N77W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 68W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND WESTERN CUBA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 21/0000 UTC FOR BERMUDA WAS 0.36 OF AN INCH...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THE 250 MB TROUGH WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N47W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N TO 35N BETWEEN 37W AND 57W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N54W 20N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 45W AND 47W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO A 24N25W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N28W AND 10N28W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SURROUNDS THE AREA OF THE TROUGH. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONE. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N67W 28N76W...CROSSING FLORIDA ALONG 27N/28N...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N91W...TOWARD THE MEXICO GULF COASTAL PLAINS THAT ARE NEAR 23N98W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 29N54W 20N56W SURFACE TROUGH. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT