000 AXNT20 KNHC 201758 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM BARRY MADE LANDFALL IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AROUND 20/1300 UTC. ITS CENTER AT 20/1800 UTC IS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 97.4W AND IS MOVING WEST AT 4 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SW GULF S OF 23N WEST OF 93W. BARRY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BRINGING THE CYCLONE FARTHER INLAND OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ AND SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ARE EXPECTED. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS JUST EAST OF THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN HAITI AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 22N70W TO 14N72W AND MOVING W-NW AT 10-15 KT. LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS DRY AIR AS WELL AS THE PRESENCE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER LA HISPANIOLA IS LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ADJACENT WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AS WELL AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF HAITI...WITHIN 130 NM EAST OF THE AXIS FROM 16N-19N AND FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 67W-70W. THE AREAS OF CONVECTION OFFSHORE COINCIDE WITH AREAS OF MODERATE MOISTURE VISIBLE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 14N17W TO 04N17W. THE PSEUDO NATURAL COLOR IMAGERY SHOW DUST SPREADING OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER...THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT SHOWS THAT THE DRY AIR FROM THE SAL IS ABOUT 250 NM AWAY FROM THE WAY AXIS. THE LACK OF DRY AIR IN THE IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH HIGH LOWER LEVELS MOISTURE DEPICTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION...WITHIN 190 NM FROM 05N-09N W OF THE AXIS AS WELL AS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 13W-17W. TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 14N37W TO 04N39W MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT SHOWS MODERATE DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE N OF 07N. PSEUDO NATURAL COLOR IMAGERY SHOW A DUST OUTBREAK WITH DENSE BROWNISH HAZE ALSO REACHING THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE PORTION OF THE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL AFRICA NEAR 10N14W TO 06N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N20W TO 05N28W TO 07N36W. IT RESUMES WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N40W TO 06N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 23W- 31W AS WELL AS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 44W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM BARRY MADE LANDFALL IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AROUND 1300 UTC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SW GULF S OF 23N WEST OF 93W. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ARE EXPECTED. OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS N OF 30N IS SUPPORTING A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NW FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N83W TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 35 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1019 MB HIGH IS LOCATED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N91W. THIS HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WHERE WINDS OF 5-15 KT ABOUND. THE HIGH OVER THE NW GULF IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WHILE TROPICAL STORM BARRY ALREADY INLAND MEXICO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER RAINSHOWERS ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE/REMNANTS OF BARRY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO BE A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER LA HISPANIOLA. THE AXIS OF THIS WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N70W TO 14N72W AND WILL BE CROSSING TO HAITI THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS DRY AIR AS WELL AS THE PRESENCE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE ISLAND IS LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ADJACENT WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AS WELL AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF HAITI...WITHIN 130 NM EAST OF THE AXIS FROM 16N-19N AND FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 67W-70W. THE AREAS OF CONVECTION OFFSHORE COINCIDE WITH AREAS OF MODERATE MOISTURE VISIBLE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AS WELL AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WITHIN 110 NM OF THE COASTLINES OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND PANAMA WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER DUE IN PART TO THE PRESENCE OF DRY STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS. THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE REPORTING WIDESPREAD DUST AND HAZE. OTHERWISE...TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT ABOUND ACROSS THE BASIN. BY EARLY FRIDAY THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER EASTERN CUBA BRINGING MOISTURE AND ENHANCING RAINSHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER BY EARLY SATURDAY AND OVER WESTERN CUBA MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THIS WAVE WILL WEAKEN IN THE PRESENCE OF LOWER LEVELS DRY AIR. HISPANIOLA... TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER LA HISPANIOLA. THE AXIS OF THIS WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N70W TO 14N72W AND WILL BE CROSSING TO HAITI THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS DRY AIR AS WELL AS THE PRESENCE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE ISLAND IS LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ADJACENT WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AS WELL AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF HAITI...WITHIN 130 NM EAST OF THE AXIS FROM 16N-19N AND FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 67W-70W. THE AREAS OF CONVECTION OFFSHORE COINCIDE WITH AREAS OF MODERATE MOISTURE VISIBLE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS MOVING W-NW IN A FAST PACE. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL START OVER HAITI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF HAITI VERY EARLY ON FRIDAY. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 29N49W TO 24N50W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N30W SPREADS OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN N OF 15N. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS