000 AXNT20 KNHC 201149 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY AT 20/1200 UTC IS NEAR 19.6N 96.4W...MOVING WESTWARD 3 KNOTS. THE POSITION OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS ABOUT 26 NM NW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REMEMBER ALSO THAT FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE...AND INTENSITY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 85W... INCLUDING IN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE NORTH OF NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W AT THE MEXICO COAST. SCATTERED STRONG IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N BETWEEN 85W AND 86W...FROM SOUTHERN BELIZE ACROSS GUATEMALA ALONG 16N/17N...TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 16N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 97W AND 98W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PART OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 71W ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SHORES. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 30N BETWEEN 59W AND 73W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 71W AND 83W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/0000 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE WAS 0.60 OF AN INCH...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...TO 9N20W AND 7N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N26W TO 5N35W 5N41W...AND 3N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 15W AND 18W...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N BETWEEN 25W AND 27W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT EVENTUALLY PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA... INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW SPIRALS AWAY FROM THE AREA OF T.S. BARRY. SOME OF THIS WIND FLOW MERGES WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM TEXAS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPEARING IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... AWAY FROM T.S. BARRY. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N55W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N72W...CROSSING FLORIDA ALONG 28N...TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N86W... TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN GULF SHORES ALABAMA. RAIN AND THUNDER ARE BEING OBSERVED IN DESTIN AND IN VALPARAISO IN FLORIDA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS NAPLES FLORIDA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... THE ICAO STATION KDLP IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM BARRY. EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS...AND WITHIN 70 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SEA HEIGHTS 12 FEET OR GREATER WILL BE WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT... WITHIN 45 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 90 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 15 FEET. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 20 KNOTS TO 33 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 23.5N TO THE WEST OF 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE BERMUDA-TO-HISPANIOLA-TO-NORTHERN COLOMBIA TROUGH COVERS THAT PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 80W. SOME OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTHEASTWARD IS PART OF THE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT IS SPIRALLING AWAY FROM T.S. BARRY. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 19N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA... THE NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA...ALONG 9N/10N...BETWEEN 74W AND 86W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA...AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 25 KNOT EAST WINDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 115N TO 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 77W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 63W AND 80W. EXPECT 20 KNOT OR LESS WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 77W AND 83W. EXPECT ALSO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 83W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...TO A 23N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 14N73W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TOWARD NORTHERN COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 65W AND 68W...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 71W ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SHORES. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 30N BETWEEN 59W AND 73W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 71W AND 83W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/0000 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE WAS 0.60 OF AN INCH... ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND IT WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 24 TO 30 HOURS OF THE NEXT 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD...REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THE 500 MB GFS FORECAST SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE NEXT 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD...REPLACED BY SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N45W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N TO 34N BETWEEN 33W AND 54W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 24N TO 31N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 42W AND 45W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N23W TO A 24N24W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 18N28W AND 13N31W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONE. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N55W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N72W...CROSSING FLORIDA ALONG 28N...TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N86W... TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N30W...TO 24N28W... 18N25W...CROSSING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 11N22W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 16N TO THE WEST OF 56W. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 62W AND 76W. EXPECT 20 KNOTS OR LESS WIND AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 9N TO 21N BETWEEN 55W AND 67W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT