000 AXNT20 KNHC 191805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO CENTER LOCATED NEAR NEAR 19.7N 95.1W AT 19/1800Z AND MOVING WEST AT 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW GULF S OF 23N INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH THE COAST IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ THURSDAY MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ARE EXPECTED. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REMEMBER ALSO THAT FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE...AND INTENSITY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ABOUT 50 NM EAST OF FAJARDO PUERTO RICO MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. ITS COMPLETE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 20N63W TO 16N65W TO 11N65W. THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN HIGH MULTI-LAYERED MOISTURE AS SHOWN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONTINUOUS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REPORTED BY MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES SO FAR. AN ENHANCEMENT OF INFRARRED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE EXTENDING FROM 14N-24N BETWEEN 58W-67W. TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 13N30W TO 05N31W MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT SHOWS DRY AIR ENGULFING THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE N OF 09N. THE PSEUDO NATURAL COLOR IMAGERY SHOW A DUST OUTBREAK WITH DENSE BROWNISH HAZE COVERING THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 09N OR WITHIN THE ITCZ. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL AFRICA NEAR 11N15W TO 08N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N23W TO 08N29W. IT RESUMES WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N32W TO 05N47W TO 07N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N EAST OF 42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS WEST OF 46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE AZORES HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N31W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF WHICH IS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW OF 10-15 KT TO MOST OF THE BASIN N OF 23N. A 1017 MB HIGH HAS DEVELOPED NE OF THE GULF NEAR 26N85W REINFORCING THIS FLOW. FOR THIS REGION OF THE GULF N OF 23N FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ASSISTED BY OVERALL DRY AIR ENVIRONMENT AT LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS. THE MAIN WEATHER OCCURRING IN THE GULF IS ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WHICH CENTER IS LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19.6N 94.5W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW GULF S OF 23N. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ THURSDAY MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ARE EXPECTED. RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SW GULF TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE NW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE CARIBBEAN IS A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 50 NM EAST OF FAJARDO PUERTO RICO. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE W ATLC WHICH EXTENDS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IT IS ALSO MOVING W-NW IN THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES HIGH. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN PRODUCING CONTINUOUS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES AND NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE IS EXTENDING FROM 14N-24N BETWEEN 58W-67W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPREADS OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WHERE MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT ABOUNDS. RAINSHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 70 NM N OF THE COSTA RICA AND PANAMA COASTLINES IN ASSOCIATION TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. TRADEWINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE UP TO 20- 25 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THAT REGION. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE A N-NW TRACK AND IS EXPECTED TO ENTER LA HISPANIOLA EARLY ON THURSDAY BRINGING HIGH MOISTURE AND ENHANCING RAINSHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN THE WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CUBA. HISPANIOLA... CURRENT VERY DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE HINDERING CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND. HOWEVER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL START TO DEGENERATE AS THE TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF PUERTO RICO CONTINUES ITS W-NW TRACK. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER LA HISPANIOLA EARLY ON THURSDAY BRINGING HIGH MOISTURE AND ENHANCING RAINSHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN THE WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CUBA ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 30N43W TO 23N41W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N31W SPREADS OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN N OF 16N. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS KEEPING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS