000 AXNT20 KNHC 191148 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1140 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO AT 19/1200 UTC IS NEAR 19.4N 94.0W...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 8 KNOTS. THE POSITION OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REMEMBER ALSO THAT FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE...AND INTENSITY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 83W... INCLUDING IN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE NORTH OF NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM GUATEMALA TO 23N BETWEEN 85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND 100W. NUMEROUS STRONG IS ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 99W AND 100W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/0000 UTC FOR TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS WAS 0.37 OF AN INCH...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PART OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH VENEZUELA HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE ANALYSIS BECAUSE IT HAS DISSIPATED. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE 19/0600 UTC MAP ANALYSIS. THE WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG...THAT ALSO IS RELATED TO THE TROUGH...IS FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 59W AND 65W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W...AND FROM PUERTO RICO TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND THE MONA PASSAGE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N15W TO 8N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N25W TO 7N28W 4N40W 3N44W AND 3N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 37W AND 41W...AND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 14N100W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 21N97W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 23N96W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPEARING IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N83W 25N90W 22N98W. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS COVERED BY MULTILAYERED MOISTURE THAT IS RELATED TO T.D. TWO. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ELSEWHERE...AWAY FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N53W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N60W 26N72W...CROSSING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...TO 26N91W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN EXAS IN PALACIOS AND IN BAY CITY. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM BEAUMONT TEXAS TO LAKE CHARLES AND IN NEW IBERIA IN LOUISIANA. THE SLIDELL GENERAL AIRPORT IS REPORTING A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...AFTER THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS OF FAIR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET. THE VISIBILITY IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN CHANGING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE VISIBILITY WAS 10 MILES AT 19/0553 UTC. IT HAS GONE FROM 10 MILES TO 5 MILES...AND THEN TO 2 MILES OR LESS FOR SOME OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOT UP TO 7 MILES AT 19/0953 UTC... AND THEN IT LOWERED TO 2 MILES OR LESS AT 19/1037 UTC. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATION KGBK. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEAS THAT ACCOMPANY TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. SOME OF THE WIND FLOW IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. SOME OF THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE 22N66W 10N65W TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA... PANAMA...AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...ALONG 9N/10N... BETWEEN 74W AND 86W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W IN COLOMBIA...AND FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF COLOMBIA... AND TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF PANAMA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 7N82W AND BETWEEN 81W AND 82W FROM 9N TO 10N. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 25 TO 30 KNOT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 66W AND 81W. EXPECT ALSO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 16N TO 18.5N INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N66W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 22N66W CENTER...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N67W...TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N65W. THE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM THE 22N66W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 28N65W AND BEYOND 32N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG IS FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 59W AND 65W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W...AND FROM PUERTO RICO TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND THE MONA PASSAGE. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/0000 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE WAS 0.13 OF AN INCH... ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE. AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE 500 MB GFS FORECAST PATTERN STARTS WITH NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH EVENTUALLY MOVES WESTWARD AND ENGULFS HISPANIOLA. THE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS WESTWARD SLIGHTLY DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 250 MB TROUGH COVERS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N42W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 21N42W. THE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE 28N42W CENTER TO 32N45W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 24N24W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N32W AND 11N35W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONE. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N53W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N60W 26N72W...CROSSING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...TO 26N91W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N27W IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N21W AND 24N16W NEAR THE COAST OF THE WESTERN SAHARA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 53W AND 62W. EXPECT 20 KNOTS OR LESS WIND AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 9N TO 17N BETWEEN 48W AND 53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 58W AND 63W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT