000 AXNT20 KNHC 181801 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO CENTER LOCATED NEAR NEAR 17.9N 90.0W AT 18/1500Z AND MOVING W-NW AT 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF BELIZE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALREADY REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REMEMBER ALSO THAT FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE...AND INTENSITY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 12N24W TO 03N22W AND MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE METEOSAT- 9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT SHOWS MODERATE DRY AIR ENGULFING THE N-NW PORTIONS OF THE AXIS. HOWEVER...THE PSEUDO NATURAL COLOR IMAGERY SHOW THAT A DUST OUTBREAK IS SPREADING OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY TO THE WAVE PORTION N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WHERE DENSER BROWNISH HAZE IS OBSERVED. THE WARM AND DRY AIR SURROUNDING THIS WAVE IS LIMITING CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN INTO VENEZUELA WITH AXIS ALONG 14N66W TO 06N66W AND IT IS MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT. OVERALL MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT AND NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THIS TIME. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL OF AFRICA NEAR 10N14W TO 07N21W 05N28W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N28W TO 05N37W 05N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N EAST OF 23W AS WELL AS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 39W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE AZORES HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO THE GULF WHICH IS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WITH CENTER CURRENTLY JUST N OF GUATEMALA IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ADVECTING MOISTURE TO THE SE GULF AS WELL AS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CONTINUOUS MODERATE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ACROSS BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES AND MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A W-NW TRACK AND MOVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 4 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY S OF 25N WEST OF 91W. WHILE THE SYSTEM EMERGES TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NE OF THE BASIN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...N OF 24N AND ACROSS THE GULF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS IS KEEPING FAIR WEATHER. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... DEEP LAYER HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO CURRENTLY JUST N OF GUATEMALA CONTINUES GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 85W. SIMILARLY...DEEP LAYER HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE PANAMA COASTLINE BETWEEN 79W-82W. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS OVER A PORTION OF THE SE CARIBBEAN INTO VENEZUELA. ITS AXIS IS ALONG 14N66W TO 06N66W AND CURRENTLY THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 15N EAST OF 65W. A COMBINATION OF HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...20 KT TRADEWINDS AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM A LOW N OF PUERTO RICO AND RIDGING TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE ISLANDS IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE A WESTWARD TRACK AND WILL BE ALONG COLOMBIA IN 24 HOURS AND OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TRADEWINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY VERY DRY AIR OVER LA HISPANIOLA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HAITI. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AS WELL AS LOW MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE TO THE MIDDLE LEVELS WILL KEEP MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY EXCEPT IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE SURFACE HEATING COULD INDUCE SOME SHOWERS. HOWEVER...AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE CARRIED OUT TO LA HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO WHICH WILL ENHANCE RAINSHOWERS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WEST ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 30N63W TO 24N67W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE AZORES HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N30W SPREADS OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN N OF 14N. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS KEEPING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. 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