000 AXNT20 KNHC 181127 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO AT 18/0900 UTC IS NEAR 17.0N 89.4W...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 7 KNOTS. THE POSITION OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS ABOUT 27N NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF TIKAL IN GUATEMALA...AND ABOUT 186 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE IN MEXICO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REMEMBER ALSO THAT FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE...AND INTENSITY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 95W...AND CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 76W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W...COVERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN BELIZE...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 78W...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 95W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19W/20W TO THE SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE IS PART OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 66W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W AND 6N29W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N29W TO 5N36W AND 5N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 12W ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AWAY FROM THE HIGH CLOUDS THAT SURROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...THROUGH 28N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N90W... TOWARD THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 23N98W. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED AT THE HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA FROM SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI INTO COASTAL ALABAMA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WEST OF 86W. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATIONS KVBS AND KEIR. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO INLAND NEAR 17.8N 92.0W. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET ELSEWHERE OVER GULF WATERS THAT ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE...AND INTENSITY. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 23N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N63W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AWAY FROM THE WIND FLOW THAT SURROUNDS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 32N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 50W AND 67W. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 70W...IN TRADEWIND FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N47W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N56W 22N65W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N66W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA ALONG 9N/10N FROM 74W...ALONG THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF PANAMA...THROUGH WESTERN PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N IN COLOMBIA TO 10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 83W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...INCLUDING IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...NEAR 17.0N 89.4W 1009 MB AT 0900 UTC JUN 18 MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 7 KNOTS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 16N TO 19N TO THE WEST OF 85W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 18.5N TO THE WEST OF 83W. FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE...AND INTENSITY. EXPECT 25 TO 30 KNOT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND 8 TO 13 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 67W AND 81W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 83W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W. HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 23N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N63W. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE. THE 500 MB GFS FORECAST PATTERN STARTS WITH NORTHEASTERLY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE ON TOP OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST STARTS WITH A TROUGH CROSSING ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH SHIFTS WESTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD... WITH HISPANIOLA RIGHT IN THE TROUGH. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO A 23N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N63W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 31N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N61W TO 28N66W AND 26N69W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 32N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 50W AND 66W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO A 29N43W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 21N48W AND 17N49W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...THROUGH 28N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N90W... TOWARD THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 23N98W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N47W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N56W 22N65W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N66W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 49W AND 62W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN TO THE WEST OF 45W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT