000 AXNT20 KNHC 180605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUN 18 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO AT 18/0300 UTC IS NEAR 16.7N 88.9W...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 8 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/ WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REMEMBER ALSO THAT FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE...AND INTENSITY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 95W...AND CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 76W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 17N87W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTH OF HONDURAS AND TO THE EAST OF BELIZE. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NORTHERN NICARAGUA NEAR 14N TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 85W AND 94W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ALONG 60W/61W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD TO 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 61W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 9N23W AND 6N29W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N29W TO 6N40W...7N50W AND 7N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 48W AND 57W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 27W AND 37W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 24W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AWAY FROM THE HIGH CLOUDS THAT SURROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...THROUGH 29N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W... TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED IN WESLACO IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN VALPARAISO. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED IN DESTIN IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS WITH RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE FORT MYERS AREA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATION KEIR. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO INLAND NEAR 17.8N 92.0W. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET ELSEWHERE OVER GULF WATERS THAT ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE...AND INTENSITY. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 25N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N63W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AWAY FROM THE WIND FLOW THAT SURROUNDS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 32N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 50W AND 66W. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD TO 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 61W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N47W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N51W 25N57W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N65W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA ALONG 9N/10N...FROM 74W TO 82W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N IN NICARAGUA BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA AND 85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN... INCLUDING IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 76W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...NEAR 16.7N 88.9W 1007 MB AT 0300 UTC JUN 18 MOVING WEST- NORTHWESTWARD OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE...AND INTENSITY. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 75W AND 83W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. THE 36 HOUR FORECAST INDICATES SOUTHEASTERLY 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN PASSAGES FROM 15N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 64W. HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 25N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N63W. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE. THE 500 MB GFS FORECAST PATTERN STARTS WITH NORTHEASTERLY FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE ON TOP OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE 250 MB GFS FORECAST STARTS WITH A TROUGH CROSSING ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HEADING TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH SHIFTS WESTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD... WITH HISPANIOLA RIGHT IN THE TROUGH. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO A 25N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N63W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 31N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N62W TO 28N66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 32N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 50W AND 66W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 15N50W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...THROUGH 29N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W... TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N47W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N51W 25N57W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N65W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 9N TO 17N TO THE WEST OF 48W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT