000 AXNT20 KNHC 172330 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 88.4W AT 17/2100 UTC OR 10 NM NE OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 86W- 92W...AND FROM 22N-23N BETWEEN 79W-86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 81W-87W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N59W TO 6N60W MOVING WNW NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW-AMPLITUDE AND HAS LARGELY BEEN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ TRACKING WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THE WAVE IS WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE THAT SPREADS EASTWARD NEAR THE ITCZ REGION DUE TO FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 60W-65W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 47W-59W. IT IS ANTICIPATED THE WAVE WILL TRACK W-NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TOWARDS THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ABC ISLANDS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW OVER MAURITANIA NEAR 19N15W TO 10N19W 7N25W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 7N25W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N40W 7N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 23N- 30N. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 32W-35W. CONVECTION NORTH OF THE WESTWARD PORTION OF THE ITCZ IS DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 27N CONTINUING INTO THE WEST ATLC. ALOFT...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE FAR WESTERN GULF AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST...WHILE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE BASIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS ALSO OUTFLOW NEAR T.D. TWO. BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER RIDGES IS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR COVERS THE BASIN...EXCEPT NEAR THE SE CORNER ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM T.D. TWO. THE DRY AIR IS MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH THE AREA. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND CUBA SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 79W- 92W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE BASIN. T.D. TWO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SW GULF AND WILL PROVIDE MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THAT AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... T.D. TWO IS PROVIDING MOIST AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINKS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. BESIDES CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 80W-83W ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS DRAWING SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR AT THE SURFACE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF DUST...WHICH IS BEING REPORTED BY MANY STATIONS. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KT IS PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE BASIN AND CONTINUING NEAR THE DEPRESSION. A TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAY BEGIN TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD INTO THE AREA. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AS T.D. TWO MOVES WNW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... HISPANIOLA REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL EXCEPT FOR A FEW WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CONSIDERABLE LESS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING COMPARED TO MOST AFTERNOONS. THIS LIKELY TO DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST...AND THE PRESENCE OF DUST IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE BY 48 HOURS AS MOISTURE NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MOVES INTO THE BASIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 65W WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 24N65W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 59W-65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO PRESENT FROM 32N62W TO 27N67W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY BROAD SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1034 AZORES HIGH. ALOFT...AN UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 54W...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 45W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS NOT CAUSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 34W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLC ALONG 20W. THE TROPICAL ATLC CONTINUES TO HAVE A BROAD SAHARAN AIR LAYER STRETCHING FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO NEAR 55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON