000 AXNT20 KNHC 171749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 16.2N 87.6W AT 17/1500 UTC OR 50 NM E OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE MOVING WNW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MIMIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N82W TO 15N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N- 21N BETWEEN 82W-90W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N58W TO 09N57W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW-AMPLITUDE AND HAS LARGELY BEEN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ TRACKING WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. AN EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND 17/1306 UTC SHOWED BROAD LOW- LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE WITH STRONG NE WINDS LOCATED PRIMARILY N OF 10N BETWEEN 46W-60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 55W-61W. IT IS ANTICIPATED THE WAVE WILL TRACK W-NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TOWARDS THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ABC ISLANDS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 08N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N23W TO 06N32W TO 06N42W TO 08N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 15W-26W...AND FROM 09N-12N BETWEEN 43W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY W OF 90W WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 27N. THIS OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC REGIME IS PROVIDING MOST OF THE GULF WITH STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO IS FURTHER PROMOTING THE FAIR WEATHER. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO FAIR WEATHER IS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED OFF THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND VICINITY N OF 29N BETWEEN 85W-89W. LOOKING AHEAD...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO CENTERED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK W-NW AND SKIRT THE SW GULF EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH IMPENDING LAND INTERACTION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND LIMITED TIME OVER GULF WATERS THEREAFTER...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL ON THE EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRIMARY FEATURE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO MENTIONED ABOVE. IT IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 13N80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 11N- 22N WEST OF 82W. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED ALONG A LINE FROM 11N82W TO 16N84W NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. TO THE SOUTH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 09N PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 10N. ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...NW FLOW ALOFT AND OVERALL GENERAL WEAK SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 25N65W. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR OVERALL THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 63W-66W. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N65W IN THE SW NORTH ATLC. ASIDE FROM A FEW PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT COTNINUES TO PROVIDE A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N65W TO A BASE EAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N68W. MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGHING HAS STRETCHED TO THE NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS...HOWEVER REMNANT WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM 32N59W TO 25N71W. WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS WEAK...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PRIMARILY THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 17N-33N BETWEEN 58W-66W. OTHERWISE...THE SW NORTH ATLC N OF 25N W OF 66W REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET THIS AFTERNOON. OF NOTE...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA IN THE VICINITY OF 29N79W. FARTHER EAST... THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 40N29W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN