000 AXNT20 KNHC 170605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W FROM 13N IN NICARAGUA TO 20N TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS OR LESS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N IN CENTRAL AMERICA TO 24N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 80W AND 95W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CURVING ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE BAHAMAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 79W AND 80W...FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W REACHING COASTAL HONDURAS...AND FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 80W AND 81W ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA. EARLIER NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS COVERING THE AREA FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO CUBA HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVE...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 79W. THE WAVE POSITION IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG 85W DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF 19N. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/54W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N...REACHING NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SURINAME. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 49W AND 53W. IT IS ANTICIPATED THE WAVE WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FORECAST IS THAT THE WAVE WILL REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTERACT EVENTUALLY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CYCLONIC CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...NEAR 23N65W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 6N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N22W TO 7N36W 6N45W AND 8N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 7N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 16W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 17W AND 24W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 38W AND 46W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 27N82W 24N90W 19N94W. THIS AREA IS AWAY FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT IS RELATED TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N65W TO 29N76W... TO AN EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N84W...TO 26N94W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SOUTHWARD. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN MILTON FLORIDA IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN THE TAMPA FLORIDA METROPOLITAN AREA...EXTENDING TO NAPLES FLORIDA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 80W. PART OF THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT IS ORIGINATING FROM THE 83W/84W TROPICAL WAVE. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 27N56W TO 22N62W...BEYOND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO 10N77W...CUTTING ACROSS PANAMA FROM EAST TO WEST ALONG 8N/9N...BEYOND 9N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 6N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN PANAMA AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 90W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 83W AND FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 79W WITH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE. THE WAVE POSITION IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG 85W DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF 19N. HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N64W TO 23N67W... THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 17N68W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. HISPANIOLA IS JUST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE AREA OF AN INVERTED TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE 500 MB GFS FORECAST IS FOR A TROUGH/WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO...AND THEN AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE BY THE END OF 48 HOURS. A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOUR PERIOD AT 250 MB. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N46W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N50W 13N54W AND 9N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 24N62W 20N65W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N13W TO 23N20W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N65W TO 29N76W... TO AN EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N84W...TO 26N94W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 27N56W 22N62W...BEYOND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2... FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 46W. THE VISIBILITIES WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 NAUTICAL MILES IN HAZE FROM 12N TO 21N TO THE EAST OF 66W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT