000 AXNT20 KNHC 160559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N77W ACROSS JAMAICA TO 11N80W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS ALSO BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 9N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N29W 7N44W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N E OF 16W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE GULF EXTENDING FROM NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO 26N84W AND CONTINUES TO SUPPLY LIFT FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SWEPT THROUGH THE N GULF YESTERDAY. STATIONARY FRONT AT 16/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM ACROSS FLORIDA S OF TAMPA ALONG 28N84W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE JUST E OF APALACHICOLA BAY WHERE IT CONTINUES INLAND N OF MOBILE ALABAMA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NE OF FRONT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND INLAND OVER FLORIDA. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN/YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING W AND AT 16/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM 22N90W TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N92W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45/60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF W OF 90W AND ANCHORED OVER SW MEXICO EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 28N88W TO INLAND OVER SE LOUISIANA BEYOND 30N92W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THU. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS W ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MON REACHING THE SW GULF WED INTO THU WITH LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WAVE S OF 21N. CARIBBEAN SEA... A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 15N-22N W OF 85W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A LARGE UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE S CARIBBEAN ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND EXTENDS E INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS ALSO EXTENDING N OVER THE W ATLC. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-18N W OF 78W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 18N TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA BETWEEN 70W-82W INCLUDING JAMAICA. THESE AREAS ENCOMPASS THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH MON EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY TUE. HISPANIOLA... THE ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AS THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED W OF THE ISLAND. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC BETWEEN 64W-80W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT 16/0300 UTC ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N62W AND CONTINUES ALONG 28N67W TO 26N72W WHERE IT IS WEAKENING AND NEAR STATIONARY ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER THE FLORIDA NEAR BOCA RATON WHERE IT CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N57W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 125 NM OF LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W ALONG 26N65W TO BEYOND 32N60W. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N74W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE AND BENIGN UPPER FEATURES ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 33N42W AND WITH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING S OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC TRANQUIL AGAIN TONIGHT. THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRUSH N CUBA TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY LATER SUN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA SUN NIGHT UNTIL TUE THEN SHIFT S TO 28N THROUGH THU AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES N OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW